On the relations between the US and the Afghan Taliban
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On the relations between the US and the Afghan Taliban Xuemei Qian1 Received: 10 June 2020 / Accepted: 7 July 2020 © The Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS), Peking University 2020
Abstract The relationship between the United States and the Taliban since 1994 can be categorized into four stages, that is, friendly engagement, disputes and escalation of differences, head-on military confrontation, and fighting while negotiating. This paper briefly outlines the historical context of the relationship, expounds on the main factors that have shaped US–Taliban relations at different stages, and explores three major variables, namely, practical interests, religions and ideologies, and third-party factors. This paper argues that the 2020 peace agreement between the United States and the Taliban might open a new chapter in US–Taliban relations, but the withdrawal of US troops does not mean the US will leave Afghanistan entirely. Given the complicated situations on the ground, the peace agreement does not guarantee real peace in Afghanistan, either. Keywords US · Taliban · Afghanistan · Al-qaeda · Peace
1 Introduction On February 29, 2020, the United States and the Taliban finally signed a peace agreement. The United States committed itself to withdrawing all its military forces from Afghanistan within 14 months of the announcement of the agreement and to removing all its sanctions against the Taliban by August 27. The Taliban agreed to take measures to prevent any group or individual, including al-Qaeda, from using the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United States and its allies and to start intra-Afghan peace talks on March 10 (U.S. Department of State 2020).1 International opinion is divided over the agreement. Those cheered by the agreement and those skeptical of it all seem to base their judgments on solid grounds. By 1 The source of the contents of the agreement are cited in the referenced paper. No separate notes will be listed when citing the agreement later in this paper. The promised intra-Afghan negotiation did not happen on March 10, although it is reported to be held on June 29.
* Xuemei Qian [email protected] 1
School of International Studies, Peking University, Beijing, China
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Vol.:(0123456789)
China International Strategy Review
all accounts, the new agreement is an important event in the history of the US–Taliban relations. Whether it marks a political watershed or turning point in a real sense will depend on whether the two sides are able to turn their written commitments into political reality. Against this backdrop, the central task of this paper is to analyze the main factors that influence the US–Taliban relationship by reviewing its historical development, so as to shed some light on its coming trends.
2 The evolution of the US–Taliban Relationship: a historical perspective People tend to perceive the United States and the Taliban as enemies because of the Afghanistan War, the first war the United States launched this century and its longe
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