On the relationship between energy-related plants and oncological cases in Basilicata (Italy) using soft computing metho
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On the relationship between energy‑related plants and oncological cases in Basilicata (Italy) using soft computing methods Salvatore Rampone1 · Biagio Simonetti1
© Springer Nature B.V. 2019
Abstract In Basilicata (Southern Italy), in areas around energy-related plants, including oil extraction sites, oil refineries, and underground gas storage plants, we consider a set of annual air quality measurements, the analysis of toxic substances emitted, and the percentage of tumours with respect the habitants. Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Programming are then applied in order to assess the data correlation and to estimate the tumour percentage in the next years. The approach is tested using a tenfold cross validation methodology. Both the used soft computing methods show low error rates and high correlation measures. Furthermore the Genetic Programming evidences an explicit representation of the factors that favour the tumours. The results push the attention towards the prevention of potential health impacts among Basilicata residents living close to the plants. Keywords Basilicata (Italy) · Oil extraction and refinement · Gas processing and storage · Environment pollution · Tumours · Soft computing · Artificial neural networks · Genetic programming
1 Introduction Basilicata (Fig. 1) is a region in Southern Italy, bordering on Campania to the west, Apulia (Puglia) to the north and east, and Calabria to the south. The region covers about 10,000 km2. At the January 2018 there are 567,118 habitants (Tuttitalia 2018). The region is rich in hydrocarbons, and, in 1989, in the Val d’agri, near the town of Potenza, the largest ground side oilfield in Western Europe was discovered. There are currently—at October 2018—three extraction areas in the region: Gorgoglione (including the towns of Gorgoglione, Laurenzana, Corleto Perticara and Stigliano), Serra Pizzuta In collaboration with the Environmental Data Processing Course Group of Università del Sannio: P. La Casa, L. Taglialatela Scafati, A. Viola, S. Pagano. * Salvatore Rampone [email protected] 1
Department of Law, Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods (DEMM), Università del Sannio, Via delle Puglie 76, 82100 Benevento, Italy
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Fig. 1 Basilicata region
(including the town of Pisticci) and Val d’Agri (including the towns of Tramutola, Viggiano, Moliterno, Marsico Nuovo, Montemurro, Grumento Nova and Calvello), but the most of the production comes from the Val d’Agri where there are 27 wells in production (ENI Basilicata 2019). In other areas (including the towns of Ferrandina, Garaguso, Grottole and Matera) there are natural gas processing plants, even based on reservoir of natural gas that have produced all their economically recoverable gas. The depleted reservoir is readily capable of holding injected natural gas and is used for underground storage (UGS) (Matos et al. 2019). Systematic analyses on a world-wide scenario of the environmental and health impacts from oil extraction show that oil
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