Operational Analysis in the Frontline
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'o1 13 issue 2 April -ji ir 2000
Operational Analysis in the Frontline - a progressive environment Suzanne Griffin 13,000 disabled; 1.5 to 4 million landmines scattered across the countryside; Infant mortality rate doubled; 3.7 million displaced persons and refùgees.
Progress across Bosnia Hergovina (BiH) izas been measured by operational analysts since Jv4 TO Implementation Force (IFOR,) deployed in December 1995. The first studies were conducted at a verj low level concentrating on the basics of surioval. By the tizne the Stabilisation Force (SFOR) arrived in J'foveinber 1996, it was clear that the OA tools would need to be dynamic, developing alongside the progress throughout
In 1995, it was evident that NATO and the international community were essentially fhced with
BiH. Maslow's "flierarchy of jVeeds" theoiy was used to indicate when major changes were required to the anaiysis and in 1997 Measures of Effictiveness were introduced.
rebuilding a country from scratch. To monitor their own progress in achieving this goal, it was necessary to measure the progress being made within BiH.
In 1998 afùrther step was taken with the first Six-Month Review. This is the current method for tracking progress and is an integral element of SFOR s mission. 77ie assessment runs
Operational analysts have been involved in this task
parallel with a Troops to Task Analysd and together they
This was the first time that such a task had been attempted and although the wa fbrward was initially unclear, the analysis was recognised as
since IFOR first deployed to BiH in December 1995.
assist SHAPE (Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe) with determining the levels of troops required within BiH. The
methodology focuses on ten criteria ident fed by the J'forth Atlantic (ouncil and is the first study to assess the level of sustainable progress achieved within BiH. This paper discusses ¡lo necessity for dynamic (24 at the frontline and how m,a U/COl (.1/ is qfprogress have developed since a cease-fire was alinoul/izil in December 1995.
essential for aiding decision-making.
A number of papers have been published by George
Rose and N J Lansbert on the early measures of progress, and additional information can be found at references I and 2.
Early Measures of Progress
-ooüoo-
Normality Indicators
Introduction
The first study to measure progress was a low-level assessment measuring basic human needs. The aim
The effects of the war on Bosnia Herzegovina (BiH) were devastating.
was to measure 'normality indicators', that would enable IFOR staff to judge the progress being made in operations and in recovery. Typical indicators measured include:
The annual income decreased by 75°/o; Industrial output decreased by 95%; Generation of electricity decreased by 780/o; \irtually all of the transportation system damaged; (330/o of housing units damaged and l80/o of housing units destroyed; 250,000 people killed, 200,000 injured and
Availability of key goods and groceries; Urban food and goods outlets; Food pri(Tes and their stabi
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