Outcome prediction with the revised American joint committee on cancer staging system and American thyroid association g
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Outcome prediction with the revised American joint committee on cancer staging system and American thyroid association guidelines for thyroid cancer Sunghwan Suh1 Yun Hak Kim2 Tae Sik Goh3 Jin Lee4 Dae Cheon Jeong5 Sae-Ock Oh2 Jong Chul Hong6 Seong Jang Kim7 In Joo Kim8 Kyoungjune Pak 8 ●
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Received: 2 July 2017 / Accepted: 3 October 2017 © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2017
Abstract Background Several staging systems have been developed to predict the risk of mortality in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). However, none of them have been shown to be clearly superior to the other. Methods We compared the patient outcome predictability of recently revised staging systems predictability of patient outcome using data from The Cancer Genome Atlas. To set a comparison among American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC)/Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) staging 7th, 8th editions, American Thyroid Association
* Kyoungjune Pak [email protected] 1
Department of Internal Medicine, Dong-A University College of Medicine, Busan, Republic of Korea
guidelines 2009 and 2015, concordance index (c-index), Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and Brier score were applied to quantify the predictive ability of a survival model, to select the statistical model, and to measure the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. Results A total of 457 patients with papillary thyroid cancer having a mean age of 45.9 years were included in this study (120 males, 337 females). Among these patients, 43 (9.4%) experienced recurrence/progression during the follow-up (591.2 ± 833.5 months). Among the models used, the AJCC/UICC 8th edition, which showed the highest c-index and lowest AIC, BIC, and Brier score, was identified as the best among the models used. Conclusion AJCC/UICC 8th edition predicted patient outcome more accurately than the other staging systems. Keywords Thyroid cancer American Joint Committee on Cancer American thyroid association ●
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Department of Anatomy, School of Medicine, Pusan National University, Yangsan, Republic of Korea
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Department of Orthopaedic Surgery and Biomedical Research Institute, Pusan National University Hospital, Busan, Republic of Korea
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Department of Internal Medicine, Haeundae Paik Hospital, College of Medicine, Inje University, Busan, Republic of Korea
Introduction
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Department of Statistics, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
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Departments of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Dong-A University College of Medicine, Busan, Republic of Korea
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Department of Nuclear Medicine and Research Institute for Convergence of Biomedical Science and Technology, Pusan National University Yangsan Hospital, Yangsan, Republic of Korea
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Department of Nuclear Medicine and Biomedical Research Institute, Pusan National University Hospital, Busan, Republic of Korea
Thyroid cancer is the most common type of malignant endocrine cancer, with its incidence continuing to rise worldwide [1]. Differ
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