Past pandemics and climate variability across the Mediterranean
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EDITORIAL
Past pandemics and climate variability across the Mediterranean J. Luterbacher1 · T. P. Newfield2,3 · E. Xoplaki4,5 · E. Nowatzki4 · N. Luther4 · M. Zhang4 · N. Khelifi6 Published online: 19 September 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract The influence that meteorological, climatological and environmental factors had on historical disease outbreaks is often speculated upon, but little investigated. Here, we explore potential associations between pandemic disease and climate over the last 2,500 years in Mediterranean history, focusing on ancient disease outbreaks and the Justinianic plague in particular. We underscore variation in the quality, quantity and interpretation of written evidence and proxy information from natural archives, the comlexity of identifying and disentangling past climatological and environmental drivers, and the need to integrate diverse methodologies to discern past climate-disease linkages and leverage historical experiences to prepare for the rapid expansion of novel pathogenic diseases. Although the difficulties entailed in establishing historical climate-pandemic linkages persist to the present, this is a research area as urgent as it is complex and historical perspectives are desperately needed.
Plagues and climate in Mediterranean history, some initial steps The dynamics of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are an urgent research area of great importance to governments across the Mediterranean. Decisions of significant public health and economic consequence are influenced by epidemiological forecasts and spread-modifying factors associated with the physical environment (COVID-19
e-symposium outcome statement, 2020). Meteorological, climatological and environmental factors may influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission and may have contributed to its emergence, though current evidence is not yet consistent or conclusive (COVID-19 e-symposium outcome statement, 2020). Although the interdisciplinary research required to untangle complex relationships between climate and disease outbreaks could benefit from historical perspectives, available data on past climate-disease linkages are of shallow
* J. Luterbacher [email protected]
2
Department of History, Georgetown University, 37th and O Streets NW, ICC, Washington, DC, USA
T. P. Newfield [email protected]
3
Department of Biology, Georgetown University, 37th and O Streets NW, ICC, Washington, DC, USA
E. Xoplaki [email protected]‑giessen.de
4
Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Senckenbergstrasse 1, 35390 Giessen, Germany
5
Centre of International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Senckenbergstrasse 3, 35390 Giessen, Germany
6
Earth and Environmental Sciences Editorial Department, Springer, a Part of Springer Nature, Tiergartenstrasse 17, 69121 Heidelberg, Germany
E. Nowatzki [email protected]‑giessen.de N. Luther [email protected]‑giessen.de M. Zhang mingyue.zhan
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