Physical models of infant mortality: implications for defects in biological systems
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Physical models of infant mortality: implications for defects in biological systems Alex Bois1 · Eduardo M. Garc´ıa-Roger2 · Elim Hong3 · Stefan Hutzler4 · Ali Irannezhad4 · Abdelkrim Mannioui1 · Peter Richmond4 · Bertrand M. Roehner5 · ´ Stephane Tronche1 Received: 20 June 2020 / Accepted: 2 November 2020 / Published online: 25 November 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Reliability engineering concerned with failure of technical inanimate systems usually uses the vocabulary and notions of human mortality, e.g., infant mortality vs. senescence mortality. Yet, few data are available to support such a parallel description. Here, we focus on early-stage (infant) mortality for two inanimate systems, incandescent light bulbs and soap films, and show the parallel description is clearly valid. Theoretical considerations of the thermo-electrical properties of electrical conductors allow us to link bulb failure to inherent mechanical defects. We then demonstrate the converse, that is, knowing the failure rate for an ensemble of light bulbs, it is possible to deduce the distribution of defects in wire thickness in the ensemble. Using measurements of lifetimes for soap films, we show how this methodology links failure rate to geometry of the system; in the case presented, this is the length of the tube containing the films. In a similar manner, for a third example, the time-dependent death rate due to congenital aortic valve stenosis is related to the distribution of degrees of severity of this condition, as a function of time. The results not only validate clearly the parallel description noted above, but also point firmly to application of the methodology to humans, with the consequent ability to gain more insight into the role of abnormalities in infant mortality. Keywords Congenital malformations · Infant mortality · Aortic valve stenosis · Failure rates · Defect distributions · Soap film lifetime experiments
Stefan Hutzler
[email protected] 1
Aquatic Facility, Pierre and Marie Curie Campus, Sorbonne University, Paris, France
2
Institut Cavanilles de Biodiversitat I Biologia Evolutiva, University of Val`encia, Val`encia, Spain
3
Neuroscience Laboratory, Sorbonne University and INSERM (National Institute for Health and Medical Research), Paris, France
4
School of Physics, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
5
Institute for Theoretical and High Energy Physics (LPTHE), Pierre and Marie Curie campus, Sorbonne University, Centre de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Paris, France
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A. Bois et al.
1 Introduction: parallels between lifetimes of technical and living systems The age-dependent mortality rates for humans and other animal species have a declining part, corresponding to infant mortality, which is followed by a rising part, corresponding to the aging process [1–3]. Technical systems are said to show a similar pattern, although little published empirical evidence appears to exist to support the point. Many publications feature stylized reliability curves instead of actual data. This lack
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