Policy Development for Pandemic Response Using System Dynamics: a Case Study on COVID-19
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Policy Development for Pandemic Response Using System Dynamics: a Case Study on COVID-19 Charlle Sy 1,2 & Ezekiel Bernardo 1 & Angelimarie Miguel 1 & Jayne Lois San Juan 1,2 Phoebe Mae Ching 4 & Alvin Culaba 2,3 & Aristotle Ubando 2,3 & Jose Edgar Mutuc 1
&
Andres Philip Mayol 3 &
Received: 11 April 2020 / Revised: 14 July 2020 / Accepted: 22 July 2020 # Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has burdened several countries. Its high transmissibility and mortality rate have caused devastating impacts on human lives. This has led countries to implement control strategies, such as social distancing, travel bans, and community lockdowns, with varying levels of success. However, a disease outbreak can cause significant economic disruption from business closures and risk avoidance behaviors. This paper raises policy recommendations through a system dynamics modeling approach. The developed model captures relationships, feedbacks, and delays present in a disease transmission system. The dynamics of several policies are analyzed and assessed based on effectiveness in mitigating infection and the resulting economic strain. Keywords COVID-19 . Disease outbreak . Response strategies . Policy recommendation . Impact assessment
Introduction The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is raising unprecedented global health concerns because of its high infection and mortality potential. Since the first case reported on December 30, 2019, the number of confirmed cases worldwide has grown at an alarming exponential rate (Huang et al. 2020), reaching hundreds of thousands being infected in different countries. As such, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares COVID-19 a public health emergency at an international level (Li et al. 2020). This spurred immediate action to identify, prevent, and control the transmission of this virus.
* Charlle Sy [email protected] 1
Industrial Engineering Department, De La Salle University, 2401 Taft Avenue, 0922 Manila, Philippines
2
Center for Engineering and Sustainable Development Research, De La Salle University, 2401 Taft Avenue, 0922 Manila, Philippines
3
Mechanical Engineering Department, De La Salle University, 2401 Taft Avenue, 0922 Manila, Philippines
4
Department of Industrial Engineering and Decision Analytics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong
Similar precautions and strategies are suggested by experts for combatting COVID-19. Sohrabi et al. (2020) propose immediate diagnosis and isolation for patients with contact to the virus. Xiao and Torok (2020) similarly suggest limiting human-human interaction, identifying and isolating persons with exposure, and providing immediate care to those who have been infected. Globally, each country has put up their own efforts against COVID-19. China, as well as many other countries, imposed travel bans and community lockdowns, especially to and from the epicenter of the outbreak Wuhan, China (Hua and Shaw 2020). Thei
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