Predicting current and future suitable habitat and productivity for Atlantic populations of maritime pine ( Pinus pinast
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RESEARCH PAPER
Predicting current and future suitable habitat and productivity for Atlantic populations of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton) in Spain Marcos Barrio-Anta 1 & Fernando Castedo-Dorado 2 & Asunción Cámara-Obregón 1 & Carlos A. López-Sánchez 1 Received: 7 November 2019 / Accepted: 12 March 2020 # INRAE and Springer-Verlag France SAS, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract & Key message By combining inventory data and spatially-continuous environmental information, we were able to develop models for Atlantic populations of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton) in Spain in order to predict suitable habitat and site index at a spatial resolution of 250 × 250 m. & Context Currently available, spatially continuous environmental information was used to make reliable predictions about suitable habitat and forest productivity. & Aims To develop raster-based distribution and productivity models for Atlantic populations of maritime pine in Spain to predict current and future suitable habitat and productivity. & Methods Occurrence data and site index values were obtained from the Third Spanish National Forest Inventory and research plots, respectively. After testing different algorithms, random forest were selected for modelling the relationships between maritime pine occurrence, site index and spatially continuous environmental variables. & Results The overall accuracy of the suitable habitat model was 73%, and climate (mainly thermal properties) and soil physical properties were the most important variables. The site index model explained 60% of the observed variability, and lithological properties were the most important variables. A slight increase in site index (0.46–0.51%) and a large increase in suitable habitat (50–66%) are expected for 2070 under the most pessimistic climate change scenario. & Conclusion The currently available spatial continuous information enables the development of accurate raster data models for predicting suitable habitat and site productivity without the need for fieldwork. Climate change is expected to increase the potentially suitable habitat of Atlantic maritime pine populations in Spain in the coming decades. Keywords Pinus pinaster Aiton . Site index . Species distribution model . Environmental variables . Random forest . Climate change Handling Editor: Andreas Bolte Contributions of the co-authors MB-A and CAL-S: designed the research, analysed and interpreted the data and wrote the manuscript. FC-D and AC-O: designed the experimental plot, collected data and reviewed drafts of the manuscript. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-020-00941-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Carlos A. López-Sánchez [email protected] 1
Department of Biology of Organisms and Systems, Mieres Polytechnic School, University of Oviedo, Campus Universitario de Mieres, C/Gonzalo Gutiérrez Quirós S/N, 33600 Mieres, Spain
2
Department of Engineering and Agricultural Sciences, School of Agr
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