Predicting the Market for Air Transportation of Heavy Nonstandard Loads
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icting the Market for Air Transportation of Heavy Nonstandard Loads M. M. Gyazovaa, * and M. V. Siluyanovaa, ** a
Moscow Aviation Institute, Moscow, Russia *e-mail: [email protected] **e-mail: [email protected]
Received November 11, 2019; revised November 22, 2019; accepted November 22, 2019
Abstract—Prediction of the demand for the An-124-100 airplane in freight air transport by simulation is considered. Analysis of model data reveals the dynamics of the basic air freight characteristics—specifically the growth in demand for the delivery of heavy nonstandard cargo—and the need to resume Russian production of heavy-duty freight carriers analogous to the An-124-100 aircraft. The projected demand for new aircraft takes account of both overall increase in demand for the delivery of heavy nonstandard cargo and the decommissioning of aging aircraft currently in operation. Keywords: air freight, heavy nonstandard cargo, predicting demand, Russian freight markets, Russian aviation industry, competitive advantage, heavy-duty cargo planes, airplane production DOI: 10.3103/S1068798X20080110
Russian air transport developed primarily as hightechnology infrastructure for moderate- and long-distance intercity routes. It is also the only means of access to regions that lack regular land transportation, which account for a considerable portion of Russia’s land mass. Commercial problems facing the Russian airfreight sector today include its limited development (no more than 3% of the world market) [1]; the need to update ground infrastructure; the need to modernize the stock of cargo aircraft held by Russian companies, including the resumption of Russian mass production of heavy-duty freight carriers analogous to the An-124-100 aircraft; the development of post-sales maintenance service so as to ensure market competitiveness; and improvement in the marketing strategy and sales system for airfreight services. For Russia, the maintenance of up-to-date air transportation is not only a matter of national prestige but also an objective need. Russia’s geography leaves no option but to ensure a commercial aviation industry capable of integrating such an extensive land mass. It is extremely important to improve the mobility of Russian citizens, which does not match that of developed nations. Local and regional transportation plays a key role here. At present, only the most developed states and regions are able to develop their own aviation industry [2–4]. The need for cargo airplanes arises from the state’s functions of defense and security, as well as disaster response, and also from commercial freight enterprises. Among post-Soviet aircraft manufacturers,
one company has a monopoly on cargo planes, thanks to the exceptional performance (payload, airspeed) of its product and its low cost relative to imports: the An124-100 airplane for the transportation of large nonstandard loads [5, 6]. The capabilities of this airplane and its commercial availability create the conditions for redistribution of the flight patterns for large heavy loa
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