Preventing confrontation and conflict in the South China Sea
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Preventing confrontation and conflict in the South China Sea Shicun Wu1 Received: 1 June 2020 / Accepted: 20 June 2020 © The Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS), Peking University 2020
Abstract Beginning in the late 1960s, territorial disputes in the South China Sea have transitioned through several different phases. Since the United States, in conjunction with its allies and partners under the traditional security framework, intervened through military and diplomatic means, disputes in the region have become more acute and complex than ever before. What does the future hold for countries inside and outside of the South China Sea region and their relationships with each other? Will these disputes escalate or de-escalate? Will diplomatic friction and confrontation develop into direct conflict at sea? If 2019 was any indication, new instabilities and intractable discord at the local level are likely in the 2020s and beyond. Unilateral actions by Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and even the Philippines in the post-Duterte era will trigger turbulence in the South China Sea. China will find the maritime cooperation it champions more difficult to advance. Negotiations over the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC) may encounter unexpected hurdles. Related legal disputes may heat up again and rise to the international level. Close ties between the United States and Vietnam could lead to a “black swan” event. Keywords South China Sea territorial disputes · The United States · Confrontation and conflict · South China Sea code of conduct
* Shicun Wu [email protected] 1
National Institute for South China Sea Studies, No. 5 Jiangdong Yiheng Road, Haikou 571100, Hainan, China
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China International Strategy Review
1 Introduction In the late 1960s and early 1970s, a series of territorial disputes developed between China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei concerning the sovereignty of some islands and reefs in the South China Sea and claims to maritime jurisdiction of the Nansha Qundao (Spratly Islands).1 As the regional and international situation evolved, these disputes have gone through several phases. From the end of the Cold War to the first decade of the twenty-first century, when the international system shifted from bipolar to unipolar, the South China Sea and maritime disputes remained relatively stable. Since the second decade of the twenty-first century, however, the United States and its allies and partners, under US leadership, have begun to exert influence over the South China Sea controversy through diplomatic and military means, leading to unprecedented levels of complexity and intensity in disputes over land and at sea. In the third decade and beyond, whether the South China Sea is headed for conflict or peace is a hot research topic in the international community. In a 2011 article in Foreign Policy magazine, Robert D. Kaplan, a senior journalist and geopolitical scientist, predicted that, “[t]he South China Sea presages a different fo
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