Probabilities, Laws, and Structures

This volume, the third in this Springer series, contains selected papers from the four workshops organized by the ESF Research Networking Programme "The Philosophy of Science in a European Perspective" (PSE) in 2010: Pluralism in the Foundations of Statis

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Proceedings of the ESF Research Networking Programme

THE PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE IN A EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE Volume 3

Steering Committee Maria Carla Galavotti, University of Bologna, Italy (Chair) Diderik Batens, University of Ghent, Belgium Claude Debru, École Normale Supérieure, France Javier Echeverria, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Spain Michael Esfeld, University of Lausanne, Switzerland Jan Faye, University of Copenhagen, Denmark Olav Gjelsvik, University of Oslo, Norway Theo Kuipers, University of Groningen, The Netherlands Ladislav Kvasz, Comenius University, Slovak Republic Adrian Miroiu, National School of Political Studies and Public Administration, Romania Ilkka Niiniluoto, University of Helsinki, Finland Tomasz Placek, Jagiellonian University, Poland Demetris Portides, University of Cyprus, Cyprus Wlodek Rabinowicz, Lund University, Sweden Miklós Rédei, London School of Economics, United Kingdom (Co-Chair) Friedrich Stadler, University of Vienna and Institute Vienna Circle, Austria Gregory Wheeler, New University of Lisbon, FCT, Portugal Gereon Wolters, University of Konstanz, Germany (Co-Chair)

www.pse-esf.org

Dennis Dieks  •  Wenceslao J. González Stephan Hartmann  •  Michael Stöltzner Marcel Weber Editors

Probabilities, Laws, and Structures

Editors Dennis Dieks Institute for History and Foundations of Science Utrecht University Budapestlaan 6 3584 CD, Utrecht The Netherlands Stephan Hartmann Center for Logic and Philosophy of Science Tilburg University PO Box 90153 5000 LE, Tilburg The Netherlands Marcel Weber Département de Philosophie Université de Genève 2, rue de Candolle 1211, Genève Switzerland

Wenceslao J. González Faculty of Humanities University of A Coruña, Campus de Esteiro, s/n C.P. 15403, Ferrol Spain Michael Stöltzner Department of Philosophy University of South Carolina James F. Byrnes Building SC 29208, Columbia USA

ISBN 978-94-007-3029-8 e-ISBN 978-94-007-3030-4 DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-3030-4 Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2012931558 © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012 No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material upplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)

Table of Contents

Marcel Weber, Preface ........................................................................................ix

Team A: Formal Methods   1 Seamus Bradley, Dutch Book Arguments and Imprecise Probabilities . ........3   2 Timothy Childers, Objectifying Subjective Probabilities: Dutch Book Arguments for Principles of Direct Inference . .............................................19   3 Ilkka Niiniluoto, The Foundation