Processing of earthquake catalog data of Western Turkey with artificial neural networks and adaptive neuro - fuzzy infer
- PDF / 3,331,820 Bytes
- 9 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 93 Downloads / 146 Views
ORIGINAL PAPER
Processing of earthquake catalog data of Western Turkey with artificial neural networks and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system Ilknur Kaftan 1 & Müjgan Şalk 1 & Yavuz Şenol 2
Received: 4 May 2015 / Accepted: 9 May 2017 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2017
Abstract Turkey is one of several countries frequently facing significant earthquakes because of its geological and tectonic position on earth. Especially, graben systems of Western Turkey occur as a result of seismically quite active tensional tectonics. The prediction of earthquakes has been one of the most important subjects concerning scientists for a long time. Although different methods have already been developed for this task, there is currently no reliable technique for finding the exact time and location of an earthquake epicenter. Recently artificial intelligence (AI) methods have been used for earthquake studies in addition to their successful application in a broad spectrum of data intensive applications from stock market prediction to process control. In this study, earthquake data from one part of Western Turkey (37–39.30° N latitude and 26°–29.30° E longitude) were obtained from 1975 to 2009 with a magnitude greater than M ≥ 3. To test the performance of AI in time series, the monthly earthquake frequencies of Western Turkey were calculated using catalog data from the region and then the obtained data set was evaluated with two neural networks namely as the multilayer perceptron neural networks (MLPNNs) and radial basis function neural networks (RBFNNs) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The results show that for monthly earthquake frequency data prediction, the proposed RBFNN provides higher correlation coefficients with real data and smaller error values.
* Ilknur Kaftan [email protected]
1
Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Engineering, Dokuz Eylul University, 35160 Izmir, Buca, Turkey
2
Department of Electrical and Electronics, Faculty of Engineering, Dokuz Eylul University, 35160 Izmir, Buca, Turkey
Keywords MLPNN . RBFNN . ANFIS . Earthquake frequency . Western Turkey
Introduction Western Turkey is one of the most rapidly deforming continental regions on earth, and widely spread seismicity in the region is an indicator of this deformation (Alptekin et al. 1990). The active deformation of western Turkey is governed by the interaction of three major plates (Eurasia, Arabia, and Africa). North Anatolian Fault (NAF), East Anatolian Fault (EAF), Bitlis Thrust Belt (BTB) and Aegean graben systems are consisted of the main tectonic structures of Anatolia (Fig. 1). The main part of the deformation in western Turkey has been caused by subduction and collision-related processes; however, the current-day deformation is closely related to the stage of collision, specifically to the rate of convergence and subduction of some of the plates (Royden 1993a, b). The present geomorphology of the region is characterized by a series of east-west trending major grabens with northeast-southwest-trending secondary
Data Loading...
