Prospects of Macroeconometric Modelling
The chapters summarizes the achievements of the modelling activities in the last 60–70 years. Macroeconometric modelling became a well established area of applied macroeconomics and at the same time world-wide activity aimed at empirical research on funct
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Managing Editors B.H. Baltagi, Syracuse University, Syracuse, USA Y. Hong, Cornell University, Ithaca, USA G. Koop, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK W. Krämer, TU Dortmund University, Dortmund, Germany Editorial Board F.G. Adams, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA P. Balestra† , University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland M.G. Dagenais, University of Montreal, Montreal, Canada D. Kendrick, University of Texas, Austin, USA J.H.P. Paelinck, Netherlands Economic Institute, Rotterdam, The Netherlands R.S. Pindyck, Sloane School of Management, M.I.T., Cambridge, USA W. Welfe, University of Łód´z, Łód´z, Poland
For further volumes: http://www.springer.com/series/5667
Władysław Welfe
Macroeconometric Models
Władysław Welfe Institute of Econometrics University of Łód´z Łód´z, Poland
ISSN 1570-5811 Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics ISBN 978-3-642-34467-1 ISBN 978-3-642-34468-8 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-34468-8 Springer Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London Library of Congress Control Number: 2013930305 © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. Exempted from this legal reservation are brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Copyright Law of the Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Permissions for use may be obtained through RightsLink at the Copyright Clearance Center. Violations are liable to prosecution under the respective Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication, neither the authors nor the editors nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions that may be made. The publisher makes no warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
To my son—Aleksander
Foreword by Lawrence R. Klein
The growth of econometric model building is known and used for understanding what ha
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