Pseudo-global warming projections of extreme wave storms in complex coastal regions: the case of the Adriatic Sea
- PDF / 13,790,837 Bytes
- 27 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 53 Downloads / 176 Views
Pseudo‑global warming projections of extreme wave storms in complex coastal regions: the case of the Adriatic Sea Cléa Denamiel1 · Petra Pranić1 · Florent Quentin2 · Hrvoje Mihanović1 · Ivica Vilibić1 Received: 4 February 2020 / Accepted: 24 July 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract This numerical work aims to better understand the behavior of extreme Adriatic Sea wave storms under projected climate change. In this spirit, 36 characteristic events—22 bora and 14 sirocco storms occurring between 1979 and 2019, were selected and ran in evaluation mode in order to estimate the skill of the kilometer-scale Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) modelling suite used in this study and to provide baseline conditions for the climate change impact. The pseudo-global warming (PGW) methodology—which imposes an additional climatological change to the forcing used in the evaluation simulations, was implemented, for the very first time, for a coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere model and used to assess the behavior of the selected storms under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas projections. The findings of this experiment are that, on the one hand, the AdriSC model is found capable of reproducing both the Adriatic waves associated with the 36 storms and the northern Adriatic surges occurring during the sirocco events and, on the other hand, the significant wave heights and peak periods are likely to decrease during all future extreme events but most particularly during bora storms. The northern Adriatic storm surges are in consequence also likely to decrease during sirocco events. As it was previously demonstrated that the Adriatic extreme wind-wave events are likely to be less intense in a future warmer climate, this study also proved the validity of applying the PGW methodology to coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere models at the coastal and nearshore scales. Keywords Adriatic Sea · Extreme storms · Pseudo-global warming · Extreme waves · Storm surges
1 Introduction In the past decade, atmospheric regional climate projections—with typical resolutions of 12 to 50-km, have been used in the Mediterranean Sea and most particularly in the Adriatic Sea (Fig. 1a) in a wide range of impact studies, such as the assessment of future wind (e.g. Bellafiore et al. 2012; Belušić Vozila et al. 2019), wave (e.g. Lionello et al. 2012a; Benetazzo et al. 2012; Bonaldo et al. 2017) and storm surge (e.g. Lionello et al. 2012b; Androulidakis et al. 2015; Mel et al. 2013) climates or the characterization of climaterelated hazards (i.e. flooding, extreme wave conditions, coastal vulnerability and erosion processes) in the northern * Cléa Denamiel [email protected] 1
Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Šetalište I. Meštrovića 63, 21000 Split, Croatia
SeaTech, Ecole d’ingénieurs, Université de Toulon, CS 60584 83041 Toulon Cedex 9, France
2
Adriatic (e.g. Rizzi et al. 2017; Torresan et al. 2019). In particular, Benetazzo et al. (2012) demonstrated that, in the Adriatic Sea, th
Data Loading...
