Reflections on cross-impact balances, a systematic method constructing global socio-technical scenarios for climate chan
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Reflections on cross-impact balances, a systematic method constructing global socio-technical scenarios for climate change research Vanessa J. Schweizer 1 Received: 31 October 2017 / Accepted: 20 November 2019/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
Experiences with an algorithmic technique—cross-impact balances (CIB)—for exploring scenarios rather than relying solely upon expert intuitions are discussed. With CIB, two types of uncertainty for climate change research have been explored: (1) socio-technical uncertainties not represented explicitly in integrated assessment models (sometimes called “context scenarios”) and (2) sampling the space of possible futures to model. By applying CIB retrospectively and prospectively to two global socio-economic scenario exercises for climate change research (the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), CIB proved instructive in two ways. First, CIB revealed system behaviors that were not obvious when social variables, such as quality of governance, were not captured explicitly by integrated assessment models. Second, CIB can algorithmically rank different plausible futures according to their self-consistency. These two capabilities have raised awareness about the limitations of accepting what may be “obvious” to model, as practices that focus solely on quantitative variables or rely upon intuitions for scenario analysis may result in detailed analyses of only a subset of important policy-relevant futures. From these experiences, systematic methods like CIB are recommended in conjunction with more detailed modeling to develop integrated socio-technical scenarios in energy-economy research. Keywords Scenarios . Socio-economic . Socio-technical . Cross-impact . Energy . Climate change
1 Global socio-economic scenarios in climate change research Scenario analysis has a long tradition in the energy sector, as scenarios have been developed for at least 50 years (Smil 2000, 2003). As awareness of the threat of climate change arose, This article is part of a Special Issue on 'Integrated Scenario Building in Energy Transition Research' edited by Witold-Roger Poganietz and Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle.
* Vanessa J. Schweizer [email protected]
1
Department of Knowledge Integration, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
Climatic Change
such as in the run-up to the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, energy scenarios also started being developed in the context of climate change (IPCC 1990). It is important to note that the word “scenario” has multiple meanings, as a scenario’s focus is a function of the context in which it was produced and how it might be used (Carter et al. 2007; Wiek et al. 2006). To use the terminology introduced by Carter et al. (2007) for different approaches to characterizing the future, energy scenarios are often “projections” or “scenarios and storylines” (Craig et al. 2002; Morgan and Keith 2008). Projections are defined as modelderived estimates for partic
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