Regional landslide hazard assessment through integrating susceptibility index and rainfall process
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Regional landslide hazard assessment through integrating susceptibility index and rainfall process Zhiheng Wang1,2 · Dongchuan Wang2 · Qiaozhen Guo2 · Daikun Wang3 Received: 3 May 2019 / Accepted: 24 August 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Due to the difference of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall and the complex diversity of the disaster-prone environment (topography, geological, fault, and lithology), it is difficult to assess the hazard of landslides at the regional scale quantitatively only considering rainfall condition. Based on detailed landslide inventory and rainfall data in the hilly area in Sichuan province, this study analyzed the effects of both rainfall process and environmental factors on the occurrence of landslides. Through analyzing environmental factors, a landslide susceptibility index (LSI) was calculated using multiple layer perceptron (MLP) model to reflect the regional landslide susceptibility. Further, the characteristics of rainfall process and landslides were examined quantitatively with statistical analysis. Finally, a probability model integrating LSI and rainfall process was constructed using logistical regression analysis to assess the landslide hazard. Validation showed satisfactory results, and the inclusion of LSI effectively improved the accuracy of the landslide hazard assessment: Compared with only considering the rainfall process factors, the accuracy of the landslide prediction model both considering the rainfall process and landslide susceptibility is improved by 3%. These results indicate that an integration of susceptibility index and rainfall process is essential in improving the timeliness and accuracy of regional landslide early warning. Keywords Landslides · Hazard assessment · Susceptibility influence · Logistic regression
* Zhiheng Wang [email protected] * Daikun Wang [email protected] 1
Tianjin Key Laboratory of Soft Soil Characteristics and Engineering Environment, Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin 300384, China
2
School of Geology and Geomatics, Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin 300384, China
3
Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction Landslides, defined as the downslope movement of rock, debris, or earth due to the influence of gravity, have caused significant property damages, personal injuries, or death worldwide (Abdallah and Faour 2017; Bui et al. 2017; Canli et al. 2018; Dowling and Santi 2014; Petley 2012; Segoni et al. 2018a, b). It is estimated that the annual economic loss caused by the landslide disaster in China is about $ 50 million (Sang 2013). Due to the significant impact of landslides on properties and human lives, the assessment of causal factors of landslide hazard is essential. Landslides can be triggered by various external events such as intense rainfall, earthquakes, water-level changes, storm waves, or human activities, of which rainfall is the most common and im
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