Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions Amy Dighe1*† , Lorenzo Cattarino1†, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg1†, Janetta Skarp1†, Natsuko Imai1†, Sangeeta Bhatia1, Katy A. M. Gaythorpe1, Kylie E. C. Ainslie1, Marc Baguelin1, Samir Bhatt1, Adhiratha Boonyasiri2, Nicholas F. Brazeau1, Laura V. Cooper1, Helen Coupland1, Zulma Cucunuba1, Ilaria Dorigatti1, Oliver D. Eales1, Sabine L. van Elsland1, Richard G. FitzJohn1, William D. Green1, David J. Haw1, Wes Hinsley1, Edward Knock1, Daniel J. Laydon1, Thomas Mellan1, Swapnil Mishra1, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani1, Pierre Nouvellet1,3, Margarita Pons-Salort1, Hayley A. Thompson1, H. Juliette T. Unwin1, Robert Verity1, Michaela A. C. Vollmer1, Caroline E. Walters1, Oliver J. Watson1,4, Charles Whittaker1, Lilith K. Whittles1, Azra C. Ghani1, Christl A. Donnelly1,5, Neil M. Ferguson1* and Steven Riley1*
Abstract Background: After experiencing a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic, South Korea rapidly controlled transmission while implementing less stringent national social distancing measures than countries in Europe and the USA. This has led to substantial interest in their “test, trace, isolate” strategy. However, it is important to understand the epidemiological peculiarities of South Korea’s outbreak and characterise their response before attempting to emulate these measures elsewhere. Methods: We systematically extracted numbers of suspected cases tested, PCR-confirmed cases, deaths, isolated confirmed cases, and numbers of confirmed cases with an identified epidemiological link from publicly available data. We estimated the time-varying reproduction number, Rt, using an established Bayesian framework, and reviewed the package of interventions implemented by South Korea using our extracted data, plus published literature and government sources. (Continued on next page)
* Correspondence: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] † Amy Dighe, Lorenzo Cattarino, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Janetta Skarp and Natsuko Imai contributed equally to this work. 1 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial College London, London, UK Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or
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