Review of Uncertainty Oriented Mathematical Methods
Until the late sixties probability theory and statistics were the only methods to quantify uncertainties. Since that time new mathematical theories have been developed to handle uncertainties and to model them. We call them uncertainty oriented methods wh
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Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH
Gyorgy Bardossy Janos Fodor
Evaluation
of Uncertainties and Risks in Geology - New Mathematical Approaches for their Handling -
with 101 Figures and 18 Tables
i
Springer
PROFESSOR DR. GYORGY BARDOSSY
Member of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences V. Roosevelt t\' er 9 1051 Budapest Hungary PROFESSOR DR. JANOS FODOR
Szent Istv\'an University Faculty of Veterinary Science Istv\'an u. 2 1078 Budapest Hungary
ISBN 978-3-642-05833-2 ISBN 978-3-662-07138-0 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-662-07138-0 Cataloging-in-Publication Data applied for Bibliographic information published by Die Deutsche Bibliothek Die Deutsche Bibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data is available in the Internet at . This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically tne rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcastins, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH. Violations are liable for prosecution under the German Copyright Law. springeronline.com © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2004 Originally published by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York in 2004 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2004
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Foreword
Risk analysis is an area of research that becomes more and more important, especially concerning environmental problems, due to the increasing industrial and human activities. The problem addressed by risk analysis is to predict whether or not, based on observations and current expert knowledge, some undesirable physical phenomenon is likely to occur or not. Very often, it aims to make sure that though appropriate decisions, a given physical system (or ecosystem) will not be affected by undesirable phenomena (like pollution, for instance). In order to face this kind of problem, a crucial issue is to represent the existing uncertainty pervading the physical system understudy. Indeed, measurements one can perform are often sparse, and human knowledge must be taken in account. So it is hard to address risk
