Revisited COVID-19 Mortality and Recovery Rates: Are we Missing Recovery Time Period?
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EDUCATION & TRAINING
Revisited COVID-19 Mortality and Recovery Rates: Are we Missing Recovery Time Period? H. R. Bhapkar 1 & Parikshit N. Mahalle 2 & Nilanjan Dey 3 & K. C. Santosh 4 Received: 27 August 2020 / Accepted: 15 October 2020 # Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020
How difficult time it is due to COVID-19 pandemic can be determined by its mortality and/or recovery rates. Predictive modeling can help us forecast how big the impact will be, especially for human lives? Prediction is one of the wellknown studies that is entirely relying on machine learning based data analytics tools and techniques. In this study, we revisit mathematical models to measure severity levels of a COVID-19 pandemic. A pandemic is an epidemic occurring on a scale that spreads rapidly across the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) considers epidemic diseases are Chikungunya, Cholera, Crimean – Congo hemorrhagic fever, Ebola Virus disease, Hendra virus infection, Influenza, Lassa fever, Plague, COVID-19, SARS, etc. In 2014, the United States Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced an equivalent framework to the WHO’s pandemic stages titled pandemic intervals framework [1–3], where two pre-pandemic and four pandemic intervals were reported. Investigation and This article is part of the Topical Collection on Education & Training * K. C. Santosh [email protected] H. R. Bhapkar [email protected] Parikshit N. Mahalle [email protected] Nilanjan Dey [email protected] 1
MIT ADTU’s, MIT School of Engineering, Pune, India
2
Department of Computer Engineering, STES’S Smt. Kashibai Navale College of Engineering, Pune, India
3
Department of Computer Science & Engineering, JIS University, Kolkata, India
4
Department of Computer Science, University of South Dakota, Vermillion, SD 57069, USA
recognition are pre-pandemic intervals. Initiation, acceleration of diseases, deceleration, and preparation are pandemic intervals. In a similar fashion, instead of using pandemic intervals, we take recovery time period into account. Recovery time period can be two days, a week, two weeks, a month, six months, a year or any finite number of days. For COVID-19, we consider an average recovery time period of 14 days [4]. In March 2020, Baud et al. [4] reported to take 14 days delay into account in order to compute right mortality rate during the COVID-19 pandemic. Their study suggested that the classical mortality rate undervalue the probable threat due to COVID-19 in symptomatic cases. Of all metrics, to measure an austerity of the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to mortality rates, recovery rate is considered. Both, mortality and recovery rates are useful metrics only when recovery time period is considered. Practically, one cannot compute mortality and recovery rates without considering its recovery time period. Inspired from previous work [4], we revisit mathematical models for both mortality and recovery rates, where not recovered cases and recovery time period are di
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