Risk-Based Design of Maritime Transport Systems
This chapter provides an approach to modelling and analysis of supply chain vulnerabilities due to physical and functional interdependencies in maritime transport systems. The results of the analysis are risk of supply breaches of the commodities transpor
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Risk-Based Design of Maritime Transport Systems Bjørn Egil Asbjørnslett, Inge Norstad and Øyvind Berle
Abstract This chapter provides an approach to modelling and analysis of supply chain vulnerabilities due to physical and functional interdependencies in maritime transport systems. The results of the analysis are risk of supply breaches of the commodities transported by the system. The risk analysis is set into the context of development of infrastructure for maritime transport systems, where industrial shipping systems are used as an example. The risk analysis is used to balance the scale of the system’s infrastructure against an assessment of the requirements and vulnerabilities of the system’s dependents. The maritime transport system is here regarded as a critical infrastructure for supply of required commodities into a region.
11.1 Introduction The maritime transport system is the backbone of international trade and supply chains, moving approximately 80 % of global trade measured in tons [1]. Therefore, interruptions in the maritime transport system have the potential to create disturbances in many dependent supply and distribution chains covering industrial and societal demands. A challenge in design of most major systems, including critical infrastructure systems, is to make the best use of the system resources in producing the product or services that is required in an industrial or societal context. For transport systems, this means to optimize the system structure, scale of resources and operational use of B. E. Asbjørnslett (&) Ø. Berle Department of Marine Technology, NTNU, Trondheim, Norway e-mail: [email protected] I. Norstad MARINTEK, Trondheim, Norway
P. Hokstad et al. (eds.), Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures, Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4471-4661-2_11, Ó Springer-Verlag London 2012
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the resources so that they are best fit to cover the required demand for transport work services, without undue use (waste) of transport infrastructure and resources. This could be achieved through optimization-based analysis and planning approaches, with a cost minimizing objective function. However, due consideration should be taken to contingencies that could affect the system and how interdependencies within the system and with other systems have affected. The approach presented here addresses this. Some parts of maritime transport system infrastructure are part of other supply chains, for instance fairways, ports and terminals. Vessels could also be part of several supply chains. Lack of access to such infrastructure due to contingencies in other types of shipping is an example of geographical interdependencies found in maritime transport systems. If optimization of the system design and system resources is done uncritically, overlooking the risks that could make the optimized system design fail under given conditions or events, the result could be cascading effects throughout a wide range of supply chai
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