Risk, Decision and Rationality
Decision Theory has considerably developed in the late 1970's and the 1980's. The evolution has been so fast and far-r2aching that it has become increasingly difficult to keep track of the new state of the art. After a decade of new contributions, there w
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THEORY AND DECISION LIBRARY
General Editors: W. Leinfellner and G. Eberlein Series A: Philosophy and Methodology of the Social Sciences Editors: W. Leinfellner (Technical University of Vienna) G. Eberlein (Technical University of Munich) Series B: Mathematical and Statistical Methods Editor: H. Skala (University of Paderborn) Series C: Game Theory, Mathematical Programming and Operations Research Editor: S. H. Tijs (University of Nijmegen) Series D: System Theory, Knowledge Engineering and Problem Solving Editor: W. Janko (University of Vienna)
SERIES B: MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL METHODS Editor: H. Skala (Paderborn)
Editorial Board J. Aczel (Waterloo), G. Bamberg (Augsburg), W. Eichhorn (Karlsruhe), P. Fishburn (New Jersey), D. Fraser (Toronto), B. Fuchssteiner (Paderborn), W. Janko (Vienna), P. de long (Vancouver), M. Machina (San Diego), A. Rapoport (Toronto), M. Richter (Kaiserslautern), D. Sprott (Waterloo), P. Suppes (Stanford), H. Theil (Florida), E. Trillas (Madrid), L. Zadeh (Berkeley).
Scope The series focuses on the application of methods and ideas of logic, mathematics and statistics to the social sciences. In particular, formal treatment of social phenomena, the analysis of decision making, information theory and problems of inference will be central themes of this part of the library. Besides theoretical results, empirical investigations and the testing of theoretical models of real world problems will be subjects of interest. In addition to emphasizing interdisciplinary communication, the series will seek to support the rapid dissemination of recent results.
RISK, DECISION AND RATIONALITY edited by
BERTRAND R. MUNIER GRASCE, University of Aix-Marseille III, France
D. REIDEL PUBLISHING COMPANY A MEMBER OF THE KLUWER
ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS GROUP
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Ubl1lry of Conp"fSs CltaIoging Ua Publkl Uon Dall
Risk, decision, and rat ionality. (Throry and decision library . Seriertant anchoring effect. The rrean valuation of A4 elicited by ICV-1 is slightly higher than the rrean elicited by ICV-2, but the differenre is insignificant. In thE"~ case of action Al the differenre between both rreans and varianres is IIDre marked, but is largely due to a couple of high valuations in subsample y: the median value for ICV-1 is actually lower than the rredian for ICV-2. What is rather striking about Figure 3(a) is the multiIIDdality of the main part of both distributions, and the considerable degree of correspondenre between the distributions, despite ,their unusual shape. Given this, it seerred appropriate to employ a non-pararretric test for any difference between the two: using the nonnal approximation for the Mann-Whitney test gave Z = -0.22, supporting the visual evidenre that there is no significant differenre between
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METIIODS OF VALUING RISKY ACfIONS
Figure 3:
Comparing ICV-1 and ICV-2
a) Srroothed Valuations of A1
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