Risk evaluation of dam-break environmental impacts based on the set pair analysis and cloud model
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Risk evaluation of dam‑break environmental impacts based on the set pair analysis and cloud model Wei Ge1 · Zongkun Li1 · Wei Li2 · Meimei Wu1 · Juanjuan Li3 · Yipeng Pan1 Received: 22 August 2018 / Accepted: 20 August 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Many dams have been constructed around the world. Compared with the potential losses of life and economy, the environmental impacts caused by dam breach were less analyzed. As a systematic theory, the set pair analysis method deals with both the certainty and uncertainty of a system or process as a whole. But when dealing with the analysis of environmental impacts with obvious uncertainty, the fuzziness feature of the indices was not considered comprehensively. Hence, this paper introduced the connection degree of set pair analysis in five grades, and the cloud model-based weight calculation method to improve the evaluation. The proposed method was applied to the case study of Qianping Reservoir, Henan Province, China, showing that the comprehensive environmental impacts caused by the potential dam breach were medium. The results of the study indicate that the proposed method is applicative and provides reliability for environmental impacts evaluation of dam breach. Keywords Environmental impacts · Dam breach · Set pair analysis · Cloud model · Risk evaluation
1 Introduction By the end of 2018, more than 98,000 reservoir dams have been constructed in China (Ge et al. 2020a), which play important roles in flood control, power generation, shipping and water supply. Meanwhile, dams also have great impacts on the environment (Braatne et al. 2008; Fan et al. 2015; Lima et al. 2017). The dam breach produces a large number of * Wei Ge [email protected] * Zongkun Li [email protected] 1
School of Water Conservancy Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, People’s Republic of China
2
School of Railway Engineering, Zhengzhou Railway Vocational and Technical College, Zhengzhou 451460, People’s Republic of China
3
Water Resources and Hydropower Investigation, Design and Research Institute Co. Ltd. of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730000, People’s Republic of China
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Natural Hazards
destructive floods (Zhou et al. 2014; Sun et al. 2014), which are of great intensity (Ge et al. 2019), and have serious threats to downstream due to their suddenness and fierceness (Yerramilli 2013; Harada and Yasuda. 2004; Cleary et al. 2015), results in the losses of life and economy (Peng and Zhang 2012; Huang et al. 2017), and causes significant environmental impacts. In recent years, many experts have paid attention to the risk evaluation of dam breach on the downstream (Ge et al. 2020b, c). Glotov et al. (2018) analyzed the causes and the environmental impacts of a dam failure in Russia. Latrubesse et al. (2017) analyzed the potential impacts on the basin caused by dams. Zhang and Tan (2014) analyzed the assessment method of the earth dam overtopping. However, the uncertainty of the indices that affect the potential environmental impacts was
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