Risk of Electricity Supply Interruptions
This chapter presents three case studies using the models and methods for risk analysis of electricity supply described in Chap. 7 , as well as the basic concepts and interdependency modelling of Chaps. 2 and 4 . The case studies comprise analyses of t
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Risk of Electricity Supply Interruptions Oddbjørn Gjerde and Gerd Kjølle
Abstract This chapter presents three case studies using the models and methods for risk analysis of electricity supply described in Chap. 7, as well as the basic concepts and interdependency modelling of Chaps. 2 and 4. The case studies comprise analyses of the reliability of supply for delivery points in the transmission and distribution grid, and a risk and vulnerability analysis including extraordinary events in the electricity system.
8.1 Introduction The electricity system consists of power plants for electricity generation, delivery points serving loads and power grids connecting the power plants and loads. The power grids consist of overhead lines and underground cables and can be divided into the national transmission grid (or main grid), regional grids and local mediumvoltage and low-voltage distribution grids . Grids at different levels are connected by transformer stations. The power plants are mainly connected to the main transmission grid and regional grid levels. The case studies presented in this chapter comprise (1) a study of the reliability of supply for two delivery points in the transmission grid supplying major industrial sites, (2) a study of the loss of supply to Oslo Central Station which is located in the distribution grid and (3) a risk and vulnerability analysis including extraordinary events.
O. Gjerde (&) G. Kjølle SINTEF Energy Research, Trondheim, Norway e-mail: [email protected]
P. Hokstad et al. (eds.), Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures, Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4471-4661-2_8, Springer-Verlag London 2012
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O. Gjerde and G. Kjølle
8.2 Case 1: Reliability of Delivery Points in the Transmission Grid In this case study, as described in [1], the reliability of supply is analysed for two different delivery points in the 420 kV Norwegian transmission grid: both supplying major industrial sites. One point is situated more or less in the centre of the transmission grid and the other at the end of a line with single-sided supply. The methods for risk analysis of electricity supply described in Chap. 7 are integrated with market models for the selection of operating scenarios as input to the contingency analysis. This is depicted in Fig. 8.1 where the contingency analysis and reliability analysis are marked with a dotted line in the middle of the Figure. Since the electricity generation and loads vary during the year, the contingency analysis should ideally be carried out for a set of operating scenarios regarded to be representative for a year (cf. Chap. 7). The reliability-constrained power market analysis in the upper part of the Figure represents the part where the power market solutions are combined to produce a set of operating scenarios. An operating scenario is defined as a system state valid for a period of time, characterized by load and generation composition including the electrical topological state (breaker positions etc.)
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