Rules-Based Fiscal Policy in Emerging Markets Background, Analysis,
Inspired by the experience of some advanced economies, a number of emerging market economies have recently adopted rules limiting the budget deficit, expenditure level, or indebtedness of the public sector, while others consider them for eventual adoption
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Rules-Based Fiscal Policy in Emerging Markets Background, Analysis, and Prospects Edited by
George Kopits
© International Monetary Fund 2004 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2004 978-1-4039-2085-0 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2004 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N. Y. 10010 Companies and representatives throughout the world PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin’s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-51512-7 ISBN 978-1-137-00157-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9781137001573 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Rules-based fiscal policy in emerging markets: background, analysis, and prospects / edited by George Kopits. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-349-51512-7 1. Fiscal policy—Developing countries—Case studies. I. Kopits, George. HJ1620.R85 2004 339.52091724—dc22 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04
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Contents List of Tables
vii
List of Figures and Box
ix
List of Contributors
x
Acknowledgments
xi
Foreword
xii
1 Overview of Fiscal Policy Rules in Emerging Markets George Kopits
Part I Political Economy and Macroeconomic Setting 2 Fiscal Rules from a Political Economy Perspective Allan Drazen
1
13 15
3 Good Credit Ratios, Bad Credit Ratings: The Role of Debt Structure 30 Ricardo Hausmann 4 Can Fiscal Rules Help Reduce Macroeconomic Volatility? Guillermo Perry
53
5 Fiscal Policy and High Capital Mobility George Kopits
66
6 Fiscal Institutions versus Political Will Allen Schick
81
Part II Design Issues at the National Level 7 EMU Fiscal Rules: What Can and Cannot be Exported Marco Buti and Gabriele Giudice
95 97
8 Fiscal Rules and Debt Sustainability in Brazil Ilan Goldfajn and Eduardo Refinetti Guardia
114
9 Fiscal Rules in Mexico: Evolution and Prospects Andrés Conesa, Moisés J. Schwartz, Alejandro Somuano, and J
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