Scrutinizing Science Empirical Studies of Scientific Change
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Guiding assumptions 1: Acceptability GAL The acceptability of a set of guiding assumptions is judged largely on the basis of: 1.1 empirical accuracy; 1.2 the success of its associated theories at solving problems; 1.3 the success of its associated theories at making novel predictions; 1.4 its ability to solve problems outside the domain of its initial success; 1.5 its ability to make successful predictions using its central assumptions rather than assumptions invented for the purpose at hand. Guiding assumptions 2: Anomalies GA2. When a set of guiding assumptions runs into empirical difficulties: 2.1 scientists believe this reflects adversely on their skill rather than on inadequacies in the guiding assumptions; 2.2 scientists are prepared to leave the difficulties unresolved for years; 2.3 scientists often refuse to change those assumptions; 2.4 scientists ignore the difficulties as long as the guiding assumptions continue to anticipate novel phenomena successfully; 2.5 scientists believe those difficulties become grounds for rejecting the guiding assumptions only if they persistently resist solution; 2.6 scientists introduce hypotheses which are not testable in order to save the guiding assumptions; 2.7 those difficulties become acute only if a rival theory explains them. Guiding assumptions 3. Innovation GA3. New sets of guiding assumptions are introduced only when the adequacy of the prevailing set has already been brought into question. Guiding assumptions 4. Revolutions GA4. During a change in guiding assumptions (i.e., a scientific revolution): 4.1 scientists associated with rival guiding assumptions fail to communicate; 4.2 a few scientists accept the new guiding assumptions, which fosters rapid change, but resistance intensifies when change appears imminent; 4.3 guiding assumptions change abruptly and totally; 4.4 the entire scientific community changes its allegiance to the new guiding assumptions; 4.5 younger scientists are the first to shift and then conversion proceeds rapidly until only a few elderly holdouts exist.
THESES ABOUT THtiORlcS Theories 1. Inter-theory relations T1. When confronted with rival theories, scientists prefer a theory which: 1.1 can solve some of the empirical difficulties confronting its rivals; 1.2 can solve problems not solved by its predecessors; 1.3 can solve all the problems solved by its predecessors plus some new problems. Theories 2. Appraisal T2. The appraisal of a theory: 2.1 depends on its ability to turn apparent counter-examples into solved problems; 2.2 depends on its ability to solve problems it was not invented to solve; 2.3 is based on the success of the guiding assumptions with which the theory is associated; 2.4 is based entirely on those phenomena gathered for the express purpose of testing the theory and which would not be recognized but for that theory; 2.5 is based on phenomena which can be detected and measured without using assumptions drawn from the theory under evaluation; 2.6 is usually based on only a very few experiments, even when those experimen
