Scrutinizing variability in full and partial rainfall time series by different approaches
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Scrutinizing variability in full and partial rainfall time series by different approaches Kadri Yurekli1 Received: 24 August 2020 / Accepted: 27 October 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract The main goal of this study was established on the effect of splitting full data in disclosing time-related internal variability in a given time series, as well as classical trend analysis procedure. For this purpose, Mann–Kendall (MK), Spearman’s Rho (SR), linear regression (LR), and innovative trend analysis (ITA) approaches were applied to the full part and the split data of the seasonal and annual rainfall data provided from the Kizilirmak Basin in Turkey. In the study, it was determined that the ITA method was more effective than other methods in terms of finding out the statistically significant trend in a significant portion of the rainfall data (approximately 87%), whereas this rate varied between 7 and 13% in other methods. Similar results have been experienced when the full data were divided into three groups. Among the trend analysis approaches applied to the split data groups formed for the analysis of the internal variability that occurs during the observation periods in the rainfall time series, the ITA method was quite effective in detecting the mentioned change in the time series. The ITA procedure revealed that there was a statistically significant decrease in rainfall amounts in the seasons with the highest rainfall of the region. This result could not be presented sufficiently when the data were divided into two groups. The remaining three methods failed to produce a remarkable result in determining the internal variability experienced in the data. In this sense, the consideration of full data in the analysis produces information about the average trend, it is insufficient to reveal the hidden information in the data. Keywords Kizilirmak basin · Rainfall · Trend analysis · ITA test
1 Introduction The water becoming one of the most important factors in determining the migration route and settlements of living things was effective in settling tribes on river and lakeshores and spreading civilizations to those geographies. In addition to the uncontrolled and polluted use of water resources, global warming has increased the pressure on usable water in this * Kadri Yurekli [email protected] 1
Department of Biosystem Engineering, Agriculture Faculty, Gaziosmanpasa University, Tokat, Turkey
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century. Besides, in order to meet the demand for food in parallel with the increase in the population, the need for freshwater has been on the rise. From this point, for the optimal use of water, which is absolutely necessary for living life, it is imperative to investigate the available water resources in terms of quality and quantity, and making plans considering the future water need. As a matter of fact, natural water sources where our water needs are met are generally fed by rains. In this sense, it is important to ensure that the parameters related to the hydrolo
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