Selling effective violence prevention policies to the public: a nationally representative framing experiment
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Selling effective violence prevention policies to the public: a nationally representative framing experiment Justin T. Pickett 1
& Stefan
Ivanov 1 & Kevin H. Wozniak 2
Accepted: 28 September 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Objectives After years of decreasing public punitiveness and declining crime rates, politicians are seeking evidence-based crime policies to reduce mass incarceration without increasing crime. One such policy that has been implemented in several US cities is the Operation Peacemaker Fellowship (OPF), which incentivizes conformity and program participation by providing monetary stipends to individuals at risk of violent offending, thereby simultaneously reducing violence and incarceration. Yet, there is no evidence about public support for such policies. Methods Using a nationally representative survey experiment, we examine public support for violence prevention stipends. We employ a referendum-style, contingent valuation design to measure the impact of tax increases versus tax savings on public opinion, and we randomize message framing that emphasizes the stipend program’s risky versus protective features. Results Both tax changes and risk framing matter. The public is willing to vote for stipends when they reduce taxes and are framed as a method to save lives. Most Republicans oppose stipends under all conditions. Conclusions Reformers can increase public support for effective, nonpunitive policies that target violent offenders by emphasizing both their economic and social benefits. However, such policies are likely to face consistent opposition from certain portions of the public. Keywords Stipends . Public opinion . Experiment . Framing . Prison downsizing
Replication data and code are at: https://osf.io/7gehm/files/
* Justin T. Pickett [email protected]
1
School of Criminal Justice, University at Albany, SUNY, 135 Western Avenue, Albany, NY 12222, USA
2
Department of Sociology, University of Massachusetts Boston, 100 Morrissey Blvd., Boston 02125 MA, USA
J. T. Pickett et al.
Between the mid-1960s and mid-1990s, the American public’s support for harsh punishment of lawbreakers increased (Ramirez 2013). Criminal justice policy followed suit, as policymakers and citizens (through initiatives and referendums) enacted punitive reforms that transformed the USA into the world’s leading carceral state (Enns 2016; Nicholson-Crotty et al. 2009). Then, something changed. The mood trend reversed in the late 1990s, and popular punitiveness started declining (Pickett 2019). To illustrate, Americans’ support for the death penalty peaked in 1994 at 80% and then fell by 24 percentage points to 56% in 2019.1 The salience of crime to the public also declined and did so in every major population subgroup (Shi et al. 2020). In turn, states began passing reforms to reduce imprisonment, and prison growth started to slow (Clear and Frost 2014). One prevalent reform paradigm, for example, has been the Justice Reinvestment Initiative, a public-private partnership in which a coalition of thin
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