Shot distribution in the NBA: did we see when 3-point shots became popular?
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Lucas Freitas
© Springer-Verlag GmbH Deutschland, ein Teil von Springer Nature 2020
Shot distribution in the NBA: did we see when 3-point shots became popular?
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi. org/10.1007/s12662-020-00690-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Background The National Basketball Association (NBA) is the main basketball league around the globe with estimated revenue of approximately US$ 49.5 billion (Badenhausen, 2018). During its history, several rules were modified (NBA, 2008), leading to differences in the game dynamics throughout the years. A key change in NBA rules was the implementation of the three-point (3PT) line. The 3PT line was implemented in the 1979–1980 season and its distance from the basket was 6.7 m (22 feet) in the corners, extending to 7.24 m (23.75 feet) at the top of the key. After 15 seasons the 3PT line was shortened to a uniform distance of 6.7 m around the basket, lasting with this measurement for three seasons: 1994–1995, 1995–1996, and 1996–1997. In the 1997–1998 season, the 3PT line returned to its original distance, which remained forthe following seasons (NBA, 2008). Recently, a popular conception claims that the NBA is passing through a 3PT revolution (Cohen, 2016). For example, one of the keys for the success of Golden State Warriors, present in five straight All code used in this study is available at https:// github.com/freitas-lucas/NBA_ShotDist
Institute of Biology, Department of Genetics, Evolution, Microbiology and Immunology, State University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil
NBA finals between seasons 2014–2015 and 2018–2019, and winning three of them, is attributed to the high volume of 3PT field goal attempts (3PTA). Indeed, the number of 3PTA had never been so high: the 78,742 3PTA in the 2018–2019 season (last season with a full calendar of 82 games prior the COVID-19 pandemic) broke the NBA record, a number 11.5 × higher compared with the first 3PT line season. Another team, the Houston Rockets, broke another 3PT-related record: they were the first team to shoot more 3PT than two-point (2PT) field goals (3470 vs. 3436, respectively) in one entire regular season, 2017–2018, and they were able to improve these numbers in the following season (3721 vs. 3442). Although 3PTAs are so popular nowadays, few works have discussed its evolution. Previous reports (Romanowich, Bourret, & Vollmer, 2007; Štrumbelj, Vračar, Robnik-Šikonja, Dežman, & Erčulj, 2013) provided a brief overview, but did not offer an overall picture. Goldsberry (2019) presented a detailed visual analysis showing the evolution of shot locations in the NBA; however, the author mainly focused on the evolution of shot locations in recent seasons and did not perform any formal statistical analysis comparing two consecutive seasons. To fill this gap and to understand how shot pattern has evolved along the NBA history (e.g., will the short 3PT line distance lead to more 3PTA/3PT%?), NBA shot data per 100 possessions for eac
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