Simulating the state of jungle cat ( Felis chaus Schreber, 1777) using cross-impact analysis in Sistan, Iran
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Simulating the state of jungle cat (Felis chaus Schreber, 1777) using cross‑impact analysis in Sistan, Iran Malihe Erfani1 · Azita Farashi2 · Mohamad Alizadeh2 Received: 21 June 2020 / Accepted: 1 October 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract Systems thinking and attention to the relationships between a system’s variables on all spatial and temporal scales is an effective strategy in biological conservation and wildlife management. This study presents a case in a sensitive ecosystem to show how the future state of the jungle cat as an umbrella species depends on local, national, and international components. To this aim, all variables affecting the state of jungle cat were identified by an expert panel. Cross-impact analysis was applied to the identified variables in two stages using MICMAC, followed by Kane’s simulation (KSIM). The MICMAC method was used to detect the most important variables (i.e., variables with more influence and less dependency), and forecasting the future state of jungle cat was implemented by KSIM on variables screened by MICMAC. MICMAC showed that among the 22 identified variables, climate change, increased construction of dams in Afghanistan, water scarcity, and decline of agricultural lands under cultivation were the most important variables for management of jungle cat. KSIM showed declining trends for all variables in the future. Therefore, the predicted decreasing trend will continue as long as management remains unchanged on the local, national, and international scales. Keywords Biological conservation · Decision making · Multi-scale hierarchical management · Systemic vision · Indicator species
Introduction Negative impacts of environmental changes are a major concern for scientists (Reo and Parker 2013). Despite conservation efforts, loss of biodiversity has accelerated globally and the number of threatened species is on the rise (Butchart et al. 2010; Siddig et al. 2016). Therefore, monitoring at the ecosystem scale is needed to evaluate an ecosystem’s response and adaptation to change, and to formulate and evaluate conservation plans (Butchart et al. 2010). An ecosystem approach to monitoring the success of wildlife management depends on indicators such as trends and status of species and habitats, among other environmental variables. However, due to the impracticality or impossibility of * Malihe Erfani [email protected] 1
Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran
Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2
investigating all indicators, some trade-offs have to be made (Heenan et al. 2016). The concept of “indicator species” refers to taxa that are used to detect environmental conditions and evaluate biodiversity (Halme et al. 2009). Umbrella species are a category of indicator species which require large habitats; thus, by protecting these species, co-occurring species are conserved (Cl
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