Simulation models to support the preliminary electoral results program for the Mexican Electoral Institute
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Simulation models to support the preliminary electoral results program for the Mexican Electoral Institute David F. Muñoz1
· Héctor Gardida2 · Hugo Velázquez2 · Jorge D. Ayala1
Accepted: 30 September 2020 © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract On July 1st, 2018, federal elections for president, senators and deputies took place in Mexico. In most states, elections for state governors and representatives took also place in the same polling booths. The Technical Unit for Information Services (UNICOM) of the National Electoral Institute (INE) of Mexico has the responsibility for planning and implementation of the Preliminary Electoral Results Program (PREP) for federal elections. For the 2018 elections UNICOM developed forecasting models for the performance of PREP based on simulation models that were developed using a special purpose simulation software and C++ subroutines for fast simulation of queues. These simulation models were a valuable tool for planning, scheduling and allocation of the main resources that participated in the operational process of the PREP. In this article we report the main features, applications and results obtained by using these simulation models. Keywords Stochastic simulation · Electoral results · Electoral processes · Transparency
1 Introduction The Preliminary Electoral Results Program (PREP) is the program that publishes data and images from the scrutiny and computation forms (see Fig. 1) that were filled by boothrepresentative citizens (booth staff) to summarize the electoral results from the corresponding booth and, according to the Act for Elections and Electoral Procedures, its objective is to
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David F. Muñoz [email protected] Héctor Gardida [email protected] Hugo Velázquez [email protected] Jorge D. Ayala [email protected]
1
Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México, Rio Hondo 1, 01080 Mexico City, Mexico
2
Technical Unit for Information Services, Instituto Nacional Electoral, Viaducto Tlalpan 100, 14610 Mexico City, Mexico
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Annals of Operations Research
Fig. 1 An scrutiny and computation form
timely inform the electoral results to interested parties, media and the public, under the principles of security, transparency, reliability and integrity (Cámara de Diputados del H. Congreso de la Unión 2017). The PREP does not have legal effects on the elections, and does not publish the final result; however, it is the most important information mechanism of electoral results in Mexico and in most countries. For the elections of July 2018, booths’ closures were scheduled at 18:00 hours and, before the PREP Operational Process (POP) begins, required tasks are performed by booth staff, including scrutiny, computation and filling of operations notebooks and forms. This is why the POP was scheduled to start at 20:00 hours of July 1st, and to end at 20:00 hours of July 2nd; during this period of time, data and images from the forms that ended their process by the Technica
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