Social, economic, and legislative factors and global road traffic fatalities
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Social, economic, and legislative factors and global road traffic fatalities Mohammad Reza Rahmanian Haghighi, Mohammad Sayari, Sulmaz Ghahramani and Kamran Bagheri Lankarani*
Abstract Background: Road traffic fatalities (RTF) is the 8th cause of mortality around the world. At the end of the Decade of Action, it would be of utmost importance to revisit our knowledge on the determinants of RTF. The aim of this study is to assess factors related to RTF at global level. Methods: We used road safety development index which accounts for the interactions between system, human and products to assess the RTF in 115 and 113 countries in 2013 and 2016, respectively. To analyze data, three statistical procedures (linear regression, classification and regression trees, and multivariate adaptive regression splines) were employed. Results: Classification and regression trees has the best performance amongst all others followed by multivariate adaptive regression splines for 2013 and 2016 data set with an R2 around 0.83. Results show that any increase in human development index was associated with RTF reduction. Comparing RTF data of 2013 and 2016, 8 countries experienced a change of more than 30%, which demonstrated a significant relationship with GINI index (named after Corrado Gini). Considering the three components of human development index, it is revealed that education explained most of RTF variation in classification and regression trees model followed by income and life expectancy. Conclusion: Policymakers should consider road collisions as a socio-economic issue. In this regard, they can make provisions to reduce RTF in the long run by focusing on enhancing the three components of human development index, mainly education. However, there is a need to investigate the causation pathway among these three components with RTF with different time-trend procedures. Keywords: Human development index, Education, Income, Life expectancy, GINI index, Road traffic fatalities
Background According to recent World Health Organization (WHO) reports, road traffic fatality (RTF) was the 8th leading cause of death worldwide in 2016 [1]. In this year, approximately 1.35 million people were killed in road collision. Based on WHO’s report (2018), A total of 40% of motorized vehicle are registered in high-income countries (with Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of more than 12,235 current US dollar), but only 7% of RTF has * Correspondence: [email protected] Health Policy Research Center, Institute of Health, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
occurred in these countries. Middle-income (with GNI per capita between 1006 and 12,235 current US dollar), and low-income (with GNI per capita of less than 1006 current US dollar), countries with 59 and 1% registered vehicles have 80 and 13% of RTF, respectively [2]. Infrastructures such as land-usage planning, road layout, designing for road function and vehicle safety are important factors in preventing RTF but too much focus has been devote
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