Solar Energy Conversion Toward 1 Terawatt
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lar Energy Conversion Toward 1 Terawatt
SEE ALSO SIDEBARS:
David Ginley (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, USA) Martin A. Green (University of New South Wales, Australia) Reuben Collins (Colorado School of Mines, USA)
Concentrating Solar Power
Abstract
Off-Grid Solar
Thermoelectrics
The direct conversion of solar energy to electricity by photovoltaic cells or thermal energy in concentrated solar power systems is emerging as a leading contender for next-generation green power production. The photovoltaics (PV) area is rapidly evolving based on new materials and deposition approaches. At present, PV is predominately based on crystalline and polycrystalline Si and is growing at >40% per year with production rapidly approaching 3 gigawatts/year with PV installations supplying 5%, respectively. Many of these devices can be fabricated with of technologies. low-cost, solution-based, low-temperature, atmospheric-pressure As we look to the future of solar energy, it is clear that materials science plays a critical role in this arena—in the near term for the improvement of Si, thin-film, and concentrator technologies and in the next 20–30 years for the development of thirdgeneration technologies. Although the focus here is on cell- and
Figure 4. Historical and projected costs for wafer and film c-Si photovoltaic modules versus their cumulative production (in megawatts). Extrapolations for future technologies are also shown (from References 5 and 6). The 70%, 80%, and 90% curves represent learning curves for the technology; the lower the percentage, the more rapid the learning, and the more rapid the price decrease with increasing production.
MRS BULLETIN
Figure 5. Cost-efficiency analysis for first- (I), second- (II), and third(III) generation PV technologies (from Reference 9).
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VOLUME 33 • APRIL 2008
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www.mrs.org/bulletin • Harnessing Materials for Energy
357
RESOURCES • SOLAR
device-level materials science, it is important to keep in mind the broad range of materials considerations required for costeffective solar conversion systems. For example, solar systems must have anticipated installation lifetimes and warranties of up to 25 years. To accomplish this goal, all of the system components must be long-lived, low-maintenance, and stable. This requires solar cell packaging, contacting (bus structures), and support structures to be stable in a wide variety of climates with extremes in temperature, humidity, and wind, for example. Crystalline Si and stabilized amorphous Si have been able to meet these challenges. To date, the other thin-film technologies have not been commercially available long enough to evaluate their lifetimes, making the ability to perform accelerated aging on modules to predict stability a critical emerging area of solar science. Coupled closely to the development of improved costeffective photovoltaics is the eventual development of low-cost energy storage solutions, as discussed elsewhere in this issue (see the article and sidebar by Whittingham and the article by Crabtree an
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