Sovereign Debt and Credit Rating Bias

Sovereign Debt and Credit Rating Bias rejects the notion that credit rating agencies' rigorous and transparent determination of ratings leaves no room for bias, and debunks the myth that the value CRAs place on their reputational capital precludes prolong

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DOI: 10.1057/9781137391506.0001

Also by David F. Tennant DEBT AND DEVELOPMENT IN SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES coedited with Damien King, 2014)

DOI: 10.1057/9781137391506.0001

Sovereign Debt and Credit Rating Bias David F. Tennant Professor of Development Finance and Associate Dean, University of the West Indies, Mona, Jamaica and

Marlon R. Tracey Doctoral Student, Binghamton University, State University of New York, USA

DOI: 10.1057/9781137391506.0001

sovereign debt and credit rating bias Copyright © David F. Tennant & Marlon R. Tracey, 2016. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2016 978–1–137–39710–2 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission. In accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6-10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published 2016 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of Nature America, Inc., One New York Plaza, Suite 4500 New York, NY 10004–1562. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. ISBN 978–1–349–67954–6 E-PDF ISBN: 978–1–137–39150–6 DOI 10.1057/9781137391506 Distribution in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world is by Palgrave Macmillan®, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available from the Library of Congress A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress A catalogue record for the book is available from the British Library

To Sandria, Sean and Elia who light up my world, and my Heavenly Father who lights my path David To Tannia, for her sustained love and support, and to my Father above, for His unrelenting blessings Marlon

DOI: 10.1057/9781137391506.0001

Contents List of Figures

vii

List of Tables

ix

Acknowledgments

x

1 Credit Rating Agencies as Gatekeepers

1

2 Establishing the Determinants of Sovereign Debt Ratings: Is There Really Room for Bias?

15

3 Resilience in Spite of Controversy: Conditions for Bias in the Credit Rating Industry 36

vi

4 Trends in Sovereign Debt Ratings: Are There any Preliminary Signs of Bias?

61

5 Introducing Greater Rigor—Methodological Approach

76