Spatiotemporal modeling of urban land cover changes and carbon storage ecosystem services: case study in Qaem Shahr Coun
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Spatiotemporal modeling of urban land cover changes and carbon storage ecosystem services: case study in Qaem Shahr County, Iran Mahdis Sadat1 · Mahmood Zoghi1 · Bahram Malekmohammadi1 Received: 22 November 2018 / Accepted: 16 December 2019 © Springer Nature B.V. 2019
Abstract Considering the level of carbon stored in green lands, vast forest ecosystems with large volumes of biomass can play an important role in carbon sequestration and reduction of man-made CO2 emissions. Accordingly, the present study aims to determine the amount of carbon stored in Qaem Shahr County, north of Iran, as part of the remaining Hyrcanian forests. To achieve the research objective, land cover (LC) classification is performed by object-oriented classification. Also, LC changes are modeled for 2027 using CA–Markov model. Then, the carbon storage sub-model of Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model is used to estimate carbon storage level and distribution in the area under study. The results show that the highest amount of stored carbon is in forest areas, which is estimated to be 18.228 megagram (Mg) in 2014. Also, results show that in case of continuation of the current trends, the amount of stored carbon will be reduced by 321,216.68 Mg by 2027. The main reason of this reduction is attributed to the decrease in plant biomass and soil affected by this ecosystem, which has been caused by increased built area in the region, destruction of forest, and range of LCs in recent years. Finally, the results show that urban development and the built lands, in general, have a considerable effect on reducing carbon storage in a nearby town with broad-leaved forests as expected. Therefore, proper planning and management of the development process is necessary in the region. Keywords CA–Markov · Qaem Shahr County—Iran · InVEST model · Urban development
* Bahram Malekmohammadi [email protected] Mahdis Sadat [email protected] Mahmood Zoghi [email protected] 1
School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Enqelab Square, Ghods Ave, P.O. Box 14155‑6135, Tehran, Iran
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1 Introduction 1.1 Urban development Urban expansion and development in vertical and horizontal directions is one of the factors considered by urban managers and planners. One of the most important effects of urbanization growth is its significant impact on the regional carbon storage and regulation due to the increase in impervious surfaces and reduction in natural green space, which in turn threatens the ecosystem services and ecological sustainability (Eigenbrod et al. 2011; Imhoff et al. 2004; Lawler et al. 2014; He et al. 2016; Li et al. 2018). Hence, urbanization is an important driver of environmental changes (Grimm et al. 2008), causing an increasing demand of ecosystem services, while altering natural ecosystems (Nikodinoska et al. 2018). Overall, growth of the world’s population can add another 2.5 billion people to urban areas by 2050 (increase to 68%), about 90% of whi
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