Spatiotemporal variations of thunderstorm frequency and its prediction over Bangladesh
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Spatiotemporal variations of thunderstorm frequency and its prediction over Bangladesh Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam1,2 · Md. Nafiuzzaman1 · Jannatul Rifat1 · M. Atiqur Rahman4 · Ronghao Chu2 · Meng Li3 Received: 18 January 2019 / Accepted: 17 December 2019 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Understanding the spatiotemporal variations of thunderstorm (TS) frequency over Bangladesh under the changing climate is of immense importance but remains a challenging task due to the lack of persistent and reliable weather data set. This study demonstrates a statistically significant increasing trend in the occurrence of monthly, seasonal, and annual TS frequencies except for decadal periods across Bangladesh during the past 6 decades. Further, land use influences and seasonal variabilities in convective available potential energy (CAPE) are also explored in various regions to understand the spatial variabilities among different parts in Bangladesh. The results show the highest occurrence of TS in monsoon and the lowest occurrence in the winter season. The results of Ward’s Hierarchical Cluster analysis (WHCA) illustrate four clusters for the whole country, where the higher TS frequency was observed in northeastern and northern regions and the lower in the southern part of Bangladesh due to the variation of CAPE and development of the low-pressure system. The occurrence of TS frequency maxima and lower coefficients of variation are found in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. The variation coefficient of the winter season is high, while the pre-monsoon season is low. The results of Mann–Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR) tests reveal the highest increase and decrease trends in M. Court and Tangail stations. The ARIMA model outcomes are consistent with the findings of MK and SR tests. Overall, this study reveals that elevated CAPE and climate warming may be reasoned of increasing the TS frequency over Bangladesh.
1 Introduction
Responsible Editor: A.-P. Dimri. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-019-00720-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam [email protected] 1
Department of Disaster Management, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur 5400, Bangladesh
2
College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
3
School of Resources and Environment, Anhui Agricultural University, Changjiang West Road, Hefei 230036, Anhui, China
4
Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Chittagong, Chittagong, Bangladesh
Thunderstorms (TS) are a mesoscale weather phenomenon resulting from vigorous convective activity lead to heavy rainfall, lightning, thunder and hail, which occasionally also can result in tornadoes and cyclones (Changnon 2001; Kunz et al. 2009; Osuri et al. 2017). The TS frequency is defined as how many times TS occurs in a particular location o
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