Statistical Learning Techniques for Project Control
There are proven techniques and tools that project managers use to monitor and control the project. Some of them are as common as the Earned Value methodology (EVM). Due to the limitations of the previous methodology, procedures arise that incorporate unc
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Statistical Learning Techniques for Project Control Fernando Acebes, Javier Pajares, and Adolfo López-Paredes
Abstract There are proven techniques and tools that project managers use to monitor and control the project. Some of them are as common as the Earned Value methodology (EVM). Due to the limitations of the previous methodology, procedures arise that incorporate uncertainty in the project control. However, the advance in research on advanced statistical techniques allows the development of more current tools that determine, on the one hand, the status of the project, and on the other, predict the future situation at the end of the project. In this article, we show how to use these advanced classification and regression techniques applied to project management, focused on the supervision and control of the time and the cost of the project. An example is included where we apply Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a set of data that will be treated with statistical tools and algorithms, which will allow us to determine, for any project control point, the probability of compliance with the planned objectives of time and cost and, where appropriate, predict what will be the deviation from such planning. Keywords Project management · Project control · Duration forecasting · Cost forecasting · Statistical learning techniques
F. Acebes (B) · J. Pajares · A. López-Paredes GIR INSISOC, Dpto. de Organización y CIM, Escuela de Ingenierías Industriales, Universidad de Valladolid, Pso. del Cauce 59, 47011 Valladolid, Spain e-mail: [email protected] J. Pajares e-mail: [email protected] A. López-Paredes e-mail: [email protected] © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 J. L. Ayuso Muñoz et al. (eds.), Project Management and Engineering Research, Lecture Notes in Management and Industrial Engineering, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54410-2_14
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14.1 Introduction Successful management of the schedule is a fundamental task for the timely completion of projects [32]. This requires a precise definition of the tasks, their sequencing and, of course, an accurate estimate of the duration of each of the project activities. The first planning methodologies based on the representation of complex network diagrams (PERT, CPM, and ROY techniques) emerged in the middle of the last century. Due to the great practicality of all of them and their extensive use, these techniques have lasted until today. However, after defining the sequencing and programming of the project, it is necessary to carry out the execution of the activities. In addition, for this reason, the establishment of systems to control the performance of activities related to the program and cost is a fundamental part of achieving the objectives of the organization [35]. The development of effective control systems becomes a crucial aspect in the organization, to ensure the fulfillment of project objectives, under the threat of various sources of uncertainty [17]. The project control process aims to minimize deviations from project plans duri
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