Statistical, time series, and fractal analysis of full stretch of river Yamuna (India) for water quality management
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Statistical, time series, and fractal analysis of full stretch of river Yamuna (India) for water quality management Kulwinder Singh Parmar & Rashmi Bhardwaj
Received: 5 April 2014 / Accepted: 14 July 2014 / Published online: 1 August 2014 # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014
Abstract River water is a major resource of drinking water on earth. Management of river water is highly needed for surviving. Yamuna is the main river of India, and monthly variation of water quality of river Yamuna, using statistical methods have been compared at different sites for each water parameters. Regression, correlation coefficient, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), box-Jenkins, residual autocorrelation function (ACF), residual partial autocorrelation function (PACF), lag, fractal, Hurst exponent, and predictability index have been estimated to analyze trend and prediction of water quality. Predictive model is useful at 95 % confidence limits and all water parameters reveal platykurtic curve. Brownian motion (true random walk) behavior exists at different sites for BOD, AMM, and total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN). Quality of Yamuna River water at Hathnikund is good, declines at Nizamuddin, Mazawali, Agra D/S, and regains good quality again at Juhikha. For all sites, almost all parameters except potential of hydrogen (pH), water temperature (WT) crosses the prescribed limits of World Health Organization (WHO)/United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Keywords Statistical analysis . Fractal dimension . Time series analysis . Water resource management
Responsible editor: Michael Matthies K. S. Parmar : R. Bhardwaj (*) Non-Linear Dynamics Research Laboratory, Department of Mathematics, University School of Basic and Applied Sciences, Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Dwarka, Delhi 110078, India e-mail: [email protected] K. S. Parmar e-mail: [email protected]
Introduction River water plays an important role in the supply of drinking water, and the quality of drinking water depends upon the quality of nearer river water. Yamuna is the largest tributary river of the Ganga in India. It originates from Yamunotri glacier at a height of 6,387 m on the southwestern slopes of Banderpooch peaks (38° 59′ N, 78° 27′ E) in the lower Himalayas in Uttarakhand. It travels a total length of 1,376 km by crossing several states, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh and has a mixing of drainage system of 366,233 km 2 before merging with the Ganga at Allahabad, i.e., a total of 40.2 % of the entire Ganga basin. The river accounts for more than 70 % of Delhi’s water supplies and about 57 million people depend on river water for their daily usage (CPCB 2006). Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) monitors the water quality parameters at different sites of Yamuna River. Five sample sites are chosen according to utilization of river water, namely Hathnikund, Nizamuddin, Mazawali, Agra, and Juhikha. Hathnikund is approximately 157 km downstream from Yamunotri and 2 km upstream
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