Subjective Logic A Formalism for Reasoning Under Uncertainty
This is the first comprehensive treatment of subjective logic and all its operations. The author developed the approach, and in this book he first explains subjective opinions, opinion representation, and decision-making under vagueness and uncertainty, a
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Audun Jøsang
Subjective Logic A Formalism for Reasoning Under Uncertainty
Artificial Intelligence: Foundations, Theory, and Algorithms Series Editors Barry O’Sullivan, Cork, Ireland Michael Wooldridge, Oxford, United Kingdom
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/13900
Audun Jøsang
Subjective Logic A Formalism for Reasoning Under Uncertainty
Audun Jøsang Department of Informatics University of Oslo Oslo, Norway
ISSN 2365-3051 ISSN 2365-306X (electronic) Artificial Intelligence: Foundations, Theory, and Algorithms ISBN 978-3-319-42335-7 ISBN 978-3-319-42337-1 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-42337-1 Library of Congress Control Number: 2016955173 © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
To my parents Astri and Tormod, to my wife Frauke, and to my children Maia, Benjamin and Johanna.
Foreword
Decision making is a pervasive part of life. Every day we are confronted with deciding between multiple choices, in both our personal and professional lives. Any decision, whether it is being made in the corporate board room, the situation room, or simply in our breakfast room, is mired in uncertainty. Only an omnipotent being has perfect knowledge to make optimal decisions. Everyone has to deal with uncertainty when choosing between options. For instance, when deciding to accept a job offer, there is always a chance that the job will turn out to be a poor fit, which could hurt your career. Therefore, it is important to perform a thorough benefit versus risk analysis that accommodates uncertainty into the decision-making process. The issue of uncertainty is exacerbated by the fact that one should not trust (in the absolute sense) anything one hears or reads, whether it com
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