Subnational Population Estimates
Providing a unified and comprehensive treatment of the theory and techniques of sub-national population estimation, this much-needed publication does more than collate disparate source material. It examines hitherto unexplored methodological links between
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Introduction
Although subject to flaws, the most complete and reliable source of information on a population is taken from a census (Bryan 2004a, 2004b; Swanson and Walashek 2011). However, a complete enumeration of a population is costly and not all populations have been subject to a census. Even in countries such as the United States, where census counts have been mandated since 1790, their high costs only allow them to be done once every ten years. This means that data can become outdated and that a substitute is needed – a set of population estimates. The development of methods of population estimation roughly corresponds to the development of censuses and vital statistics registries. For example, in the late 18th century, the French mathematician, Laplace, was using what we would today call a censal-ratio method in combination with recorded births and a population sample to estimate the population of France (Stigler 1986: 163-164). However, methodological development really only took off in the late 1930s and early 1940s, fueled in large part by the need for low-cost and timely information generated by the great depression of the 1930s and World War II. (Bryan 2004a; Eldridge 1947; Hauser and Tepping 1944; Shryock 1938; Shryock and Lawrence 1949; US Census Bureau 1945, 1949). In the United States, the Census Bureau played a major role in this effort, but it was not alone. During the early 1940s, the Washington State Census Board, for example, developed a comprehensive program of annual population determinations based on estimation methods that are still used today (Swanson and Pol 2005). Around this same time, demographers also began developing estimation methods for what were then called “underdeveloped countries,” (Brass et al. 1968, Chandrasekaran and Deming 1949; Davis 1951; Popoff and Judson 2004) and the use of sample surveys as a substitute for complete census counts took hold (Bryan 2004a; Featherman 2004). Today, population estimates are ubiquitous. They are done around the world by a host of governmental and non-governmental entities, as well as individual consultants (Bryan 2004b; Siegel 2002; Swanson and Pol 2005). The widespread availability of data, methods, and technology has made it possible for many people not only to develop estimates, but to do so more quickly and D.A. Swanson and J. Tayman, Subnational Population Estimates, The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis 31, DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-8954-0_1, # Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012
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1 Introduction
less expensively than has ever been done before. This trend is not likely to abate, but it carries with it a cost in that estimates may both be made and used with little or no understanding of the issues involved, what constitutes good estimates, and how to identify them. This book is designed to provide guidance on these issues and advice on how both to make and identify good estimates. Before we proceed, though, it is good to talk about what estimates are – and what they are not.
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What is a Pop
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