Subseasonal prediction for bloom dates of tart cherries in Utah and Michigan, USA: merging phenological models with CFSv
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Subseasonal prediction for bloom dates of tart cherries in Utah and Michigan, USA: merging phenological models with CFSv2 forecast Parichart Promchote 1,2
&
S.-Y. Simon Wang 1,3 & Brent Black 1 & Paul G. Johnson 1
Received: 1 April 2019 / Revised: 4 August 2020 / Accepted: 21 August 2020 # ISB 2020
Abstract Temperate fruit trees require chilling for rest completion, followed by sufficient heat accumulation for onset of growth and bloom. The application of phenological models to predict bloom dates has been widely used in orchard management. Examples of such application include selecting adapted cultivars less prone to early bloom, predicting needs for frost protection, and preventing damage from late spring freezes. This study merged the Utah (chill) and ASYMCUR (forcing) phenological models by combining chill units and heat units (measured in growing degree hours) to predict bloom dates of tart cherries (Prunus cerasus L.) in Utah and Michigan, the top producing states of the USA. It was found that the modified Utah model improves the estimation of chill units compared with the original one, while the original Utah model may still be suitable for use in the colder winter of Michigan (with its later bloom dates than Utah). The combined models were applied with the temperature predicted by the Climate Forecast System v2 (CFSv2) model. The prediction was applied twice a month, starting from 1 February to 1 May. The Utah-ASYMCUR model using the forecasted temperature from CFSv2 exhibits subseasonal performance in predicting the bloom dates for 6 weeks in advance. The prediction can offer growers a way to mitigate extreme climate anomalies. Keywords Chill models . Heat models . Bloom dates . Tart cherries . CFSv2 . Subseasonal prediction
Introduction Temperate fruit crops are most susceptible to cold temperature damage during the period near full bloom. For tart cherry (Prunus cerasus L.) near bloom, the critical temperatures at which 10% and 90% of fruiting buds are killed are − 2.2 °C and − 4.4 °C respectively (Longstroth 2007). In 2012, the
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-02005-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Parichart Promchote [email protected] 1
Department of Plants, Soils, and Climate, Utah State University, 4820 Old Main Hill, Logan 84322-4820, UT, USA
2
Department of Agronomy, Kasetsart University, 50 Ngamwongwan Rd., Lat Yao, Chatuchak, Bangkok 10900, Thailand
3
Utah Climate Center, Utah State University, 4825 Old Main Hill, Logan 84322, UT, USA
Michigan tart cherry industry, typically the largest in the USA, experienced catastrophic crop losses (USDA 2017; Fig. 1a) due to a combination of an anomalously warm spring that brought on early bloom followed by consecutive days of freezing temperatures during bloom (Ault et al. 2013; Rill 2016). In Utah, the second largest tart cherry producing state, damage from freeze events near bloom is also common, as was the case
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