Substance use initiation and the prediction of subsequent academic achievement
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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Substance use initiation and the prediction of subsequent academic achievement Alejandro D. Meruelo 1
&
Norma Castro 1 & Tam Nguyen-Louie 2 & Susan F. Tapert 1
# Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Academic performance significantly influences educational advancement, career opportunities, and life outcomes. The extent to which adolescent substance use and brain morphology predict academic achievement has not been extensively explored. We examined grade point average (GPA) at the time alcohol and cannabis use often starts (7th - 9th grade) and subsequently during 11th and 12th grade in a 170 physically healthy adolescents in a longitudinal study. Covariance analysis examined predictive features from 36 metrics of middle school academic performance and initiation of alcohol and cannabis use. Using a machine learning approach, GPA from 7th, 8th, and 9th grade strongly predicted 11th and 12th grade GPA, followed in predictive power by alcohol use age of onset. A machine learning approach determined 16 (from 336) baseline neuroimaging features that reflected lower thickness, area, or volume in average high school GPA drinkers compared to nondrinkers. Features that distinguished average performing drinkers from nondrinkers suggested accelerated gray matter loss during adolescence for drinkers, while high performing drinkers compared to nondrinkers may have attenuated gray matter maturation. Additional possibilities are discussed. Keywords Academic performance . Adolescence . Magnetic resonance imaging . Alcohol use . Cannabis use . Machine learning
Introduction Academic performance has important bearings on scholastic advancement, including the opportunity to attend college, graduate school, professional school, and other careerdetermining educational programs (Shaw 2007; Meda et al. 2017). Intelligence quotient (IQ) has historically been considered a strong predictor of academic performance (Zax and Rees 2002). Cannabis use is prevalent among adolescents, with past month cannabis users varying from 7 to 8% (Azofeifa et al. 2016a, b). Cannabis use has been reported to be associated with higher rates of academic dropout in high school, poorer Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s11682-019-00219-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Alejandro D. Meruelo [email protected] 1
Department of Psychiatry, University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
2
San Diego State University/University of California San Diego Joint Doctoral Program in Clinical Psychology, San Diego, CA, USA
academic performance, and reduced socioeconomic status and employability over the long term (Henry et al. 2007; Schulenberg et al. 1994; Paulson et al. 1990; Mensch and Kandel 1988; Bryant et al. 2003; Hawkins et al. 1992; Jackson et al. 2016; Ellickson et al. 1998). Persistent cannabis use across high school in subjects from an upper middle class community ha
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