System Dynamics Modelling of the Global Extraction, Supply, Price, Reserves, Resources and Environmental Losses of Mercu
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System Dynamics Modelling of the Global Extraction, Supply, Price, Reserves, Resources and Environmental Losses of Mercury Harald Ulrik Sverdrup
&
Anna Hulda Olafsdottir
Received: 17 March 2020 / Accepted: 13 July 2020 / Published online: 13 August 2020 # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract How mercury flows from geological sources to society and to the environment was modelled for this study. The industrial dynamics of mercury was modelled and included in the integrated assessment model WORLD7. The simulated mercury losses were used as input for a simplified global model for environmental pollution. The outputs were analysed and used to assess mercury pollution amounts and supply to society. In fossil fuels, there are a potential stock of 2 million tons in coal and other hydrocarbons, and 450,000 tons of that could be released to the environment if the fossil fuels are all to be burned. Such release would potentially cause major environmental damage and a significant human health risk. The simulations suggest that environmental mercury flows may peak in 2025, and slowly decline as mercury gets immobilized in nature. The simulations show that the pollution from technical use is eliminated by
H. U. Sverdrup Gameschool, Norway Inland University of Applied Sciences, Holsetgaten 31, NO-2315 Hamar, Norway H. U. Sverdrup (*) : A. H. Olafsdottir Industrial Engineering, University of Iceland, Hjarðarhagi 2-6, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland e-mail: [email protected]
A. H. Olafsdottir e-mail: [email protected]
putting the 2013 Minimata Convention into effect, but that environmental pollution from fossil fuels combustion and from environmental re-emissions will remain a significant problem for the next decades. Keywords System dynamics . Mercury . Supply . Sustainability . Environmental pollution
1 Introduction Mercury is very toxic, even at extremely low exposures, and thus, its toxicity has always been an issue since antiquity (Scoullos 2001). It is important that as little as possible ends up in the environment (Tchounwou et al. 2012, EEA 2018). It is a rare element of the IIb group of the periodic system. Mercury has a silvery colour, is a semi-precious metal. It is a liquid between − 39 and + 357 °C. It has been known since antiquity and has always been considered as very special. It was used in medical substances, and in the past, this was a source of substantial damage for those that got to be treated with mercury compounds. It was the first antibiotic used against syphilis. One important use has been as a liquid solvent for extracting silver and gold from ores. It has been used in amalgam, most known for its use as a dental material from about 1800 to about 2000. Any dental or medical use has been outlawed in the EU by the Heavy Metal Convention (de Vries et al. 2004; de Vries and Bakker 1998; Bakker et al. 1998; EEA 2018).
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This has further lead to the Minamata Convention,1 signed in 2013, and globally effective of 2017. Scientifically, the toxicity and extreme
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