The Analysis of Predictors of Retirement Preferences over Time
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The Analysis of Predictors of Retirement Preferences over Time Patrick Pilipiec 1 & Wim Groot 2 & Milena Pavlova 3 Received: 14 November 2019 / Accepted: 1 September 2020/ # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Due to rapid demographic ageing and to sustain its pension system, the Netherlands recently initiated a pension reform that increased the retirement age, with the intention to increase labour force participation among older workers. However, there is little evidence on the preferences of workers concerning their retirement age, and on how these preferences have changed over time. To identify personal and work-related determinants of the preference toward earlier or later retirement, and how these determinants and preferences have changed over time. We use data from three consecutive measurements (waves) of a large Dutch panel. Ordered logit regression is used to investigate the predictors of retirement preferences. Analyses are performed for two groups; all workers and a subsample of workers aged 50 years or older. Furthermore, the analyses are performed for each wave separately and for the combined dataset. A preference for later retirement is primarily related to university education, high job satisfaction, and high income. Age is only positively related to later retirement among older workers. Earlier retirement is preferred by female workers and workers living with a partner. The preference toward an earlier retirement age has increased over time. The preferences toward retirement can be primarily explained by personal characteristics, job satisfaction, and net income. Furthermore, with the increase in the retirement age defined by current legislation, the preference for an earlier retirement age has increased over time. Keywords Ageing . Ordered logit regression . Pension . Population ageing . Retirement
preferences . The Netherlands
* Patrick Pilipiec [email protected] Wim Groot [email protected] Milena Pavlova [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
P. Pilipiec et al.
Introduction Due to an increasing life expectancy and a decreasing birth rate, many western European countries are confronted with rapid demographic ageing (Suadicani et al. 2013). Population ageing is occurring in most OECD countries and globally (OECD 2019b). Japan experiences the highest old-age dependency ratio of all OECD countries, where, for every 100 persons of working age, there were 50 persons of age 65 and older in 2017 (OECD 2018). It is projected that this ratio will increase to 79 persons in 2050 (OECD 2018). Population ageing affects the labour market and challenges the sustainability of pension and social security systems (Boumans et al. 2008). To counter this, many European governments have introduced policies to stimulate labour market participation among older workers beyond the traditional retirement age of 65 years, and to discourage early retirement (Finch 2014; Lynch 2006; Wahrendorf et al. 2017). Consequently, the lab
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