The Bush Administrations and Saddam Hussein Deciding on Conflict
The authors present a vital analysis of the foreign policy-making processes of the two Bush administrations prior to the attacks on Iraq. In a thorough comparison, they show how both presidents used historical analogies to evaluate information, relied on
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The Bush Administrations and Saddam Hussein Deciding on Conflict
Alex Roberto Hybel and Justin Matthew Kaufman
THE BUSH ADMINISTRATIONS AND SADDAM HUSSEIN
Copyright © Alex Roberto Hybel, 2006. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2006 978-1-4039-7578-2 All rights reserved. First published in hardcover in 2006 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN® in the United States—a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-137-32092-6 ISBN 978-0-230-60114-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230601147 The Library of Congress has cataloged the hardcover edition as follows: Hybel, Alex Roberto The Bush administrations and Saddam Hussein : deciding on conflict / by Alex Roberto Hybel and Matthew. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. United States––Foreign relations––Iraq. 2. Iraq––Foreign relations––United States. 3. United States––Foreign relations––1989– 4. United States––Military policy. 5. Bush, George, 1924– 6. Bush, George W. (George Walker), 1946– 7. Hussein, Saddam, 1937– 8. Persian Gulf War, 1991. 9. Iraq War, 2003– I. Title. E183.8.I57H93 2006 956.7044⬘32––dc22
2006046013
A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First PALGRAVE MACMILLAN paperback edition: March 2013 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
To Barbara Peurifoy, David, Karen, and Hanna Kaufman, and Jeremy Whyman
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C on t e n t s
Acknowledgments to the Second Edition
ix
Foreword by Ronald Steel
xiii
Preface to the Paperback Edition
xvii
Introduction Chapter One Chapter Two
Two Surprises, Two Wars, Two Presidents, One Family
1
Alternative Theories of Foreign Policy-Making
9
Two Harmful Surprises
19
Chapter Three The Logic of Surprise versus the Logic of Surprise Avoidance
47
Chapter Four
Two Very Different Wars
63
Chapter Five
The Apple Sometimes Falls Close to the Tree
109
The Absence of a Rational Process
145
Chapter Six
Chapter Seven Be Careful What You Hope For: The Consequences of Invading Iraq
155
Notes
177
Bibliography
205
Index
213
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Acknowledgments to the Second Edition
My research informs my teaching, but it is through teaching that I often discern what I do not know. As a result, teaching has on more than one occasion dictated my research agenda. It is in the classroom that I am repeatedly rewarded by the discovery of students with tremendous intellectual capacity and energy, waiting to encounte
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