The Chinese Economy A New Transition
China has enjoyed a higher growth rate for a longer period than any other nation to date. This volume brings together leading economists to analyse this unprecedented economic boom, and discuss prospects for the future. Chapters address a wide range of is
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The Chinese Economy A New Transition Edited by
Masahiko Aoki Stanford University and
Jinglian Wu Development Research Center, China
© International Economic Association 2012 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2012 978-1-137-03427-4
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2012 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-137-03429-8 (eBook) ISBN 978-1-137-03428-1 DOI 10.1057/9781137034298
This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12
Transferred to Digital Printing in 2013
Contents List of Tables
vii
List of Figures
ix
Notes on Contributors
xi
Foreword
xiv
Introduction Masahiko Aoki
1
Part I Fitoussi Lecture 1
Economics and China’s Economic Rise Wu Jinglian
13
Part II Perspectives of the Chinese Economy 2
China’s Investment and GDP Growth Boom: When and How will it End? Dwight H. Perkins
3
Six Systemic Reforms with which China Must Press Ahead Lou Jiwei
4
When Demographic Dividend Disappears: Growth Sustainability of China Cai Fang and Zhao Wen
35 60
75
Part III Labor Market, Social Insurance and Demographic Change 5
Adjusting to Really Big Changes: The Labor Market in China, 1989–2009 Wei Chi, Richard Freeman and Hongbin Li
6
Population Aging and Economic Growth in China Judith Banister, David E. Bloom and Larry Rosenberg
7
Health, Education and China’s Demographic Transition Since 1950 Karen Eggleston v
93 114
150
vi
Contents
8 Social Insurance and Household Con
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