The COVID-19 pandemic preparedness simulation tool: CovidSIM
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
The COVID-19 pandemic preparedness simulation tool: CovidSIM Kristan A. Schneider1*
† , Gideon A. Ngwa1,3† , Markus Schwehm4 , Linda Eichner5
and Martin Eichner2,6†
Abstract Background: Efficient control and management in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic needs to carefully balance economical and realizable interventions. Simulation models can play a cardinal role in forecasting possible scenarios to sustain decision support. Methods: We present a sophisticated extension of a classical SEIR model. The simulation tool CovidSIM Version 1.0 is an openly accessible web interface to interactively conduct simulations of this model. The simulation tool is used to assess the effects of various interventions, assuming parameters that reflect the situation in Austria as an example. Results: Strict contact reduction including isolation of infected persons in quarantine wards and at home can substantially delay the peak of the epidemic. Home isolation of infected individuals effectively reduces the height of the peak. Contact reduction by social distancing, e.g., by curfews, sanitary behavior, etc. are also effective in delaying the epidemic peak. Conclusions: Contact-reducing mechanisms are efficient to delay the peak of the epidemic. They might also be effective in decreasing the peak number of infections depending on seasonal fluctuations in the transmissibility of the disease. Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, SEIR model, Mathematical model, Social distancing, Case isolation, Control intervention, Seasonal variation
Backgound The whole world has been shaken by the outbreak of a new corona virus disease outbreak that started in Wuhan province of China in late 2019 [1]. Due to international travel and interconnectivity, the virus has spread worldwide and affected almost every major nation of the world. Though there is limited data on the extent of the spread of the infection in many parts of the world, on March 11, 2020, the WHO has declared the 2019 corona virus disease outbreak, COVID-19, a global pandemic [2]. *Correspondence: [email protected] † Kristan A. Schneider, Gideon A. Ngwa and Martin Eichner contributed equally to this work. 1 Department of Applied Computer- and Bio-Sciences, University of Applied Sciences Mittweida, Technikumplatz 17, 09648 Mittweida, Germany 2 Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, Geschwister-Scholl-Platz, 72074 Tübingen, Germany Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
COVID-19 is caused by a virus known as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) [3]. The COVID-19 outbreak, has meanwhile caused over 46 million cases and over 1.19 million deaths in over 200 countries (November 3, [4]). Human-to-human transmission can occur via droplets or contaminated surfaces and materials [5]. The symptoms of COVID-19 appear after an incubation period of 2 to 14 days (mean 5-6 days) [6, 7] and can vary in intensity, ranging from asymptomatic infections to pneumonia and subsequent death. Serious upper respiratory tract i
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