The Effect of Immigration on Labor Market Transitions of Native-Born Unemployed in the United States
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The Effect of Immigration on Labor Market Transitions of Native-Born Unemployed in the United States Fernando Rios-Avila 1 & Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza 2 # Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Unemployed workers are the group most likely to be affected by the presence of immigrants in their local labor markets since they are actively competing for job opportunities. Yet, little is known about the effect of immigration on labor market opportunities of the unemployed. Using a sample of unemployed native-born citizens from the monthly Current Population Survey from 2001 to 2015 and state level immigration statistics, we employ a multinomial model in the framework of a discrete hazard model with competing risks to examine the effects of immigration on the transition out of unemployment. The results suggest that immigration does not affect attrition not the probabilities of native-born workers finding a job. Instead, we find that immigration is associated with smaller probabilities of remaining unemployed. Keywords Immigration . Unemployment duration . Labor force transition JEL Classifications J1 . J6
The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organization, employer, or company. We would like to thank Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, Klaus Zimmermann, anonymous referees, and the participants at the Bolivian Development Conference and the Latin American Meetings of the Econometric Society in for helpful comments and suggestions.
* Fernando Rios-Avila [email protected] * Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza [email protected]
1
Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504-5000, USA
2
Universidad Privada Boliviana, La Paz, Bolivia
Journal of Labor Research
Introduction The immigration debate in the United States has a longstanding history (Orrenius and Zavodny, 2012; Passel and Fix 1994). Over the last few decades, the share of immigrants in the country has increased rapidly. According to official data, the share of foreign-born individuals in the US increased from 7.9% in 1990 to almost 13.3% in 2014, representing about 41.3 million people. Furthermore, from the total immigrant population, in 2014, about 11.3 million immigrants were estimated to be unauthorized immigrants (Passel and Cohn, 2015). These trends have shaped the immigration policy in the US and motivated a large body of research focused on examining the economic impacts of immigration (Kerr and Kerr, 2011; Okkerse, 2008). The majority of the immigration research has been focused on analyzing the effects that immigrants, particularly unauthorized immigrants, have on the wages and employment opportunities of native-born workers (Okkerse, 2008; Longhi, Nijikamp, and Poot, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010; Borjas, 1999). However, while the literature on the effects of immigration on native-born workers has been broadly studied, little is known about the effects of immigration on the labor market opport
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