The Financial Crisis Reconsidered The Mercantilist Origin of Secular
In The Financial Crisis Reconsidered, Aronoff challenges the conventional view that reckless credit produced the US housing boom and the financial crisis, explaining how the large current account deficit, and its mercantilist origin, was a more fundamenta
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FINANCIAL CRISIS RECONSIDERED The Mercantilist Origin of Secular Stagnation and Boom-Bust Cycles
Daniel Aronoff
The Financial Crisis Reconsidered
The Financial Crisis Reconsidered The Mercantilist Origin of Secular Stagnation and Boom-Bust Cycles
Daniel Aronoff
THE FINANCIAL CRISIS RECONSIDERED
Copyright © Daniel Aronoff 2016 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2016 978-1-137-55368-3 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission. In accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published 2016 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN The author has asserted their right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of Nature America, Inc., One New York Plaza, Suite 4500, New York, NY 10004-1562. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. E-PUB ISBN: 978-1-349-57547-3 E-PDF ISBN: 978-1-137-54789-7 DOI: 10.1057/9781137547897 Distribution in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world is by Palgrave Macmillan®, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Aronoff, Daniel, 1961– author. The financial crisis reconsidered : the mercantilist origin of secular stagnation and boom-bust cycles / Daniel Aronoff. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Global Financial Crisis, 2008–2009. 2. Financial crises. 3. Business cycles. 4. Mercantile system. I. Title. HB37172008 .A76 2015 330.9⬘0511—dc23
2015027275
A catalogue record for the book is available from the British Library.
Contents
List of Figures and Tables
vii
Preface
xi
Acknowledgments
Part I The Current Account Deficit and the US Housing Boom: Establishing the Connections 1 The Metamorphosis of China’s Trade Policy
xvii
1 3
2 The Current Account Deficit and the Housing Boom
15
3 Mercantilism and the Current Account Deficit
39
4 The Current Account Deficit: A Necessary Condition for the Housing Boom
55
Part II The Capital Flow Bonanza, the Credit Explosion, and the US Housing Boom: Channels of Transmission
67
5 A Review of Explanations for the Housing Boom
69
6 Decision-Making during the Housing Boom
81
7 The Capital Flow Bonanza and
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