The limitations of kinship determinations using STR data in ill-defined populations
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
The limitations of kinship determinations using STR data in ill-defined populations Vincent Zvénigorosky 1,2 & Audrey Sabbagh 3 & Angéla Gonzalez 2 & Jean-Luc Fausser 2 & Friso Palstra 3 & Georgii Romanov 4,5 & Aisen Solovyev 4,6 & Nikolay Barashkov 4,5 & Sardana Fedorova 4,5 & Éric Crubézy 7 & Bertrand Ludes 1 & Christine Keyser 1,2 Received: 8 December 2019 / Accepted: 7 April 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract The likelihood ratio (LR) method is commonly used to determine kinship in civil, criminal, or forensic cases. For the past 15 years, our research group has also applied LR to ancient STR data and obtained kinship results for collections of graves or necropolises. Although we were able to reconstruct large genealogies, some pairs of individuals showed ambiguous results. Second-degree relationships, half-sibling pairs for example, were often inconsistent with detected first-degree relationships, such as parent/child or brother/sister pairs. We therefore set about providing empirical estimations of the error rates for the LR method in living populations with STR allelic diversities comparable to that of the ancient populations we had previously studied. We collected biological samples in the field in North-Eastern Siberia and West Africa and studied more than 800 pairs of STR profiles from individuals with known relationships. Because commercial STR panels were constructed for specific regions (namely Europe and North America), their allelic makeup showed a significant deficit in diversity when compared to European populations, replicating a situation often faced in ancient DNA studies. We assessed the capacity of the LR method to confirm known relationships (effectiveness) and its capacity to detect those relationships (reliability). Concerns over the effectiveness of LR determinations are mostly an issue in forensic studies, while the reliability of the detection of kinship is an issue for the study of Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00414-020-02298-w) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Vincent Zvénigorosky [email protected]
Éric Crubézy [email protected]
Audrey Sabbagh [email protected]
Bertrand Ludes [email protected]
Angéla Gonzalez [email protected]
Christine Keyser [email protected]
Jean-Luc Fausser [email protected]
1
CNRS FRE 2029-BABEL,, Paris Descartes University, Paris, France
2
Strasbourg Institute of Legal Medicine, Strasbourg, France
3
UMR 261 MERIT, IRD, Paris Descartes University, Paris, France
Georgii Romanov [email protected]
4
Laboratory of Molecular Biology, North-Eastern Federal University, Yakutsk, Sakha Republic, Russia
Aisen Solovyev [email protected]
5
Laboratory of Molecular Genetics, Yakut Science-Centre of Complex Medical Problems, Yakutsk, Sakha Republic, Russia
Nikolay Barashkov [email protected]
6
Institute for Humanitarian Studies and Problems of Indigenous Peoples of
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