The Marine Hindcast and Forecast System for Diagnosis and Prediction of Hydrometeorological Characteristics of the Caspi
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Marine Hindcast and Forecast System for Diagnosis and Prediction of Hydrometeorological Characteristics of the Caspian Sea and Forecast Verification Based on Field Measurements V. V. Fomina, b*, N. A. Dianskya, b, c, E. A. Korshenkoa, and T. Yu. Vyruchalkinad a
Zubov State Oceanographic Institute, Kropotkinskii per. 6, Moscow, 119034 Russia Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Gubkina 8, Moscow, 119333 Russia c Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991 Russia d Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Gubkina 3, Moscow, 119333 Russia *e-mail: [email protected] b
Received October 9, 2018 Revised November 29, 2019 Accepted December 17, 2019
Abstract—The possibility of using the Marine Hindcast and Forecast System (MHFS) developed at Zubov State Oceanographic Institute for short-term forecasting of hydrometeorological and ice characteristics of the Caspian Sea is demonstrated. The presented implementation of the system is based on the regional nonhydrostatic atmospheric model WRF (Weather Research and Forecast Model) and model of marine circulation INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model). The system performance is assessed for the period from January 1 to March 31, 2017 by comparing the forecasts of hydrometeorological characteristics with observational data from hydrometeorological stations. The quality of reproducing sea ice characteristics based on ESIMO objective data is also evaluated.
DOI: 10.3103/S1068373920090058 Keywords: Caspian Sea, forecast, wind speed, air temperature, sea level fluctuations, ice conditions
1. INTRODUCTION Highly developed fisheries, water transport, hydropower sector, oil and gas production and chemical industry, agriculture [2], as well as many other industries and recreational resources of the Caspian Sea play an important role in the economy of the Caspian region countries. The location of the Caspian Sea in different climate zones causes great differences in the distribution of air temperature over the sea and favors high positive values in summer and low negative values in winter. In view of this, the formation of the winter ice cover only in the Northern Caspian Sea leads to differences in the sea water temperature distribution. The Caspian region is also characterized by the stable storm winds that cause surges across the sea, especially in the Northern Caspian Sea, where maximum upsurges and downsurges can reach 4.5 and 2.5 m, respectively [3]. In view of the above, the problems of reproducing and forecasting of hydrometeorological characteristics of the Caspian Sea are becoming increasingly relevant and challenging. As high-performance computing systems have developed in recent years, it has become possible to use physically complete numerical atmosphere and ocean models with high spatial resolution to solve these problems. For the Caspian Sea, the system for short-term prognostic calculations of hydrometeorological fields is currently implemented at Hydrometcenter
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